This is a very testable prediction
-
-
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Most claims are boring. There is a chair in my closet. They bought the orange juice. It's raining outside. This leads to true winning.
-
For a statement to be true, every part of it has to fit with every other part. For a statement to be false, just one part has to not fit with one other part.
- Show replies
New conversation -
-
-
I claim the results of this is accurate.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
This Tweet is unavailable.
-
I worried about this too: does a claim like "Water is wet" or "Vaccines cause autism" count as one claim or once for each time its made? But either way I think
@LevelOAnalysis has it: they're swamped by claims like, "We're at the airport."
End of conversation
-
-
-
I have seen people making bad judgment based on bad reasoning, right after having been explained of it. People not having encountered demonstratable truth claim is not the reason they don't believe it. Most people just believe whatever is convenient for them.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Mostly false. People live in the bailey (making false-but-useful claims), and only move to the motte (making true-but-useless claims) when they need to.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
This Tweet is unavailable.
-
There's a bias in phrasing, and in which questions metaculus uses. (They are often asking about extremely optimistic / pessimistic events that are unlikely to trigger.)
End of conversation
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.