Adam Elkus

Yes, this. Which is why Seoul agreed to ithttps://twitter.com/chrisgingram/status/718742900817809408 …

Trippy stuff. http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/multiple-realizability/#MulReaArg …

...for the ability to make quick tactical decisions without getting to point of no return as their impact accumulates.

That might require having people whose sole job is to just watch the trends over time and red-team, but its a small investment.....

But more general principle is just that, yes, do a lot of Type 2 decision making but watch the trends over time and ask hard questions.

Now, losing a gigantic maneuver war battle in continental Asia is not really something that most of my tech followers really relate to

....led to some of largest land battles in modern Asian history in which KMT formations annihilated + survivors flee to Taiwan

One of better historical examples of this is end of Chinese Civil War. Allowing Mao to build up combat power + overstretch of KMT units....

What is dangerous is to be muddling through and have no recognition that you are doing it until there is a sudden and violent collapse.

Sometimes muddling through is the best or the only option, but you don't know that until you've actually realized u are muddling thru

Rather, it's that the danger for most organizations -- especially ones in violent and adversarial environments -- is thoughtless inertia.

The point isn't that Bezos is wrong about overly ponderous Type 1 decision making being applied too much.

That said, I'm sure anyone that has ever struggled with a diet or seen what cumulative effect of neglecting a partner can do knows this

.....it might be regarded as a kind of painfully slow motion crossing of the Rubicon in which no one turns back despite abundant opps

Eventually the organization is too far leveraged in one direction to turn back. There's no dramatic crossing of the Rubicon but.....

True, but enough Type 2 decisions eventually adds up to a Type 1 decisionhttps://twitter.com/johnsheehan/status/718501667105144832 …

My favorite one of these references was the Ice Cube album where he compared himself to Patton

and then before that there was the Wu-Tang and their "PLO style" and Capone-N-Noreaga's references to various 90s' era conflicts