Adam Elkus
@Aelkus
PhD student, @CSS_GMU. Work on strategy + AI/agents. One year fellow @NewAmCyber; all tweets my own. Doge version: http://imgur.com/8H2vzBf
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LinkedIn post with collected links for meetup group for strategic theory papers: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/papers-we-love-strategic-theory-adam-elkus?published=t …
11:31 AM - 20 Jan 2016 · Details11 retweets 36 likes
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Adam Elkus Retweeted
T. Greer Retweeted Christopher G Ingram
Yes, this. Which is why Seoul agreed to ithttps://twitter.com/chrisgingram/status/718742900817809408 …
T. Greer added,
Christopher G Ingram @chrisgingram@Scholars_Stage@AaronFriedberg the THAAD-card is about convincing CHN to play tougher re: NK. Hence showing the card, w/o playing it.1 retweet 0 likes -
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Adam Elkus Retweeted
The Internet of things! [source of pic unknown]pic.twitter.com/eF1HEHdmWZ
5:09 PM - 26 Sep 2014 · Details3,571 retweets 2,125 likes -
...for the ability to make quick tactical decisions without getting to point of no return as their impact accumulates.
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That might require having people whose sole job is to just watch the trends over time and red-team, but its a small investment.....
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But more general principle is just that, yes, do a lot of Type 2 decision making but watch the trends over time and ask hard questions.
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Now, losing a gigantic maneuver war battle in continental Asia is not really something that most of my tech followers really relate to
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....led to some of largest land battles in modern Asian history in which KMT formations annihilated + survivors flee to Taiwan
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One of better historical examples of this is end of Chinese Civil War. Allowing Mao to build up combat power + overstretch of KMT units....
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What is dangerous is to be muddling through and have no recognition that you are doing it until there is a sudden and violent collapse.
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Sometimes muddling through is the best or the only option, but you don't know that until you've actually realized u are muddling thru
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Rather, it's that the danger for most organizations -- especially ones in violent and adversarial environments -- is thoughtless inertia.
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The point isn't that Bezos is wrong about overly ponderous Type 1 decision making being applied too much.
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That said, I'm sure anyone that has ever struggled with a diet or seen what cumulative effect of neglecting a partner can do knows this
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Why? Paul Bracken has one of better illustrations of this. http://www.comw.org/qdr/fulltext/06bracken.pdf …pic.twitter.com/ANxM0a7bAR
10:52 PM - 8 Apr 2016 · Details2 retweets 2 likes -
.....it might be regarded as a kind of painfully slow motion crossing of the Rubicon in which no one turns back despite abundant opps
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Eventually the organization is too far leveraged in one direction to turn back. There's no dramatic crossing of the Rubicon but.....
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Adam Elkus Retweeted John Sheehan
True, but enough Type 2 decisions eventually adds up to a Type 1 decisionhttps://twitter.com/johnsheehan/status/718501667105144832 …
Adam Elkus added,
John Sheehan @johnsheehanGreat advice on decision making from Bezos pic.twitter.com/FbYO91J05Z3 retweets 7 likes -
My favorite one of these references was the Ice Cube album where he compared himself to Patton
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and then before that there was the Wu-Tang and their "PLO style" and Capone-N-Noreaga's references to various 90s' era conflicts
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Adam Elkus
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