Adam Posen

@AdamPosen

President, Peterson Institute for International Economics; proclaims on monetary, fiscal and trade policy, advises investors. Tweets/RT only on own behalf.

Washington, DC
Vrijeme pridruživanja: ožujak 2013.

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  1. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    3. velj

    A spokesman for Nissan Europe said: "We deny such a contingency plan exists. We’ve modelled every possible ramification of Brexit and the fact remains that our entire business both in the UK and in Europe is not sustainable in the event of WTO tariffs.” Is the only truth.

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    Very interesting discussion on the relative role of fiscal & monetary policy in a low-interest-rate environment. As argues for strengthening monetary policy, & push for more fiscal policy

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    Breaking/ just tried to ban certain national newspapers from a Number 10 briefing. This is truly sinister stuff. Hats off to the BBC, ITV, Mail, Telegraph & Times for walking out too in protest, rather than let him get away with it.

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    ‘The election is over. The next campaign has begun. This wasn’t really a speech about Brexit. It was a rallying cry, rolling the pitch for the blame game to come’ me along with ⁦⁩ ⁦⁩ and ⁦⁩ on the speech

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    Love the No 10 rebranding of a “no trade deal” Brexit - ie WTO with tariffs, serious friction and a bit of mitigation - as an “Australia-style” deal. Just a reminder: Australia has no FTA with the EU and is 9,000 miles away, not 30

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  6. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    3. velj

    I love Super Bowl statistics. (“No team that has failed to convert at least 35% of their 3rd downs has gone on to win” etc.) They are the best introduction to p-hacking that can be found outside major journals.

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    Net favorability of socialism, among: Sanders backers: +56% Biden backers: -4% All Dem primary voters: +17% All registered voters: -34% Independents: -45%

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    Going to say this until blue in the face: If is the Democratic nominee, it means the 2020 election will become a referendum on socialism, instead of what it should be, which is a referendum on . ... and Trump likely wins in that case.

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  9. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    2. velj

    The Number 10 brief is no alignment, no concessions, no ECJ, and we want exactly the same deal as the EU gave to Canada. Also that the EU offered this then took it away. On this basis no deal (and also probably no deal with the US) and serious economic damage. Let's unpack... 1/

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    Odgovor korisnicima

    Indeed. See this paper (first written in 1994!) that explains that the key advantage of modern regional trade agreements is not tariffs/quotas, but that they can help guarantee certainty and credibility.

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  11. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    We have only been out of the EU for 36 hours and already the “stab-in-the-back” conspiracy theories have started. It didn’t work out well for Weimar and it won’t work for UK ps there isn’t a deal to renege on

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  12. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    2. velj

    Translating economic theory from the classroom into the real world can be difficult. We're here to help with our first PIIE Case Study. See how economics actually played out with the Greek debt crisis:

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  13. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    2. velj

    Struck at how the financial crisis and then low interest rates have forced a transformation of monetary policy, and a reassessment of the relative roles of monetary and fiscal policy. This is starting, and will evolve further.

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    2. velj

    Still struck at the usefulness of the IS-LM as a first pass, thought organizer. Easy to add, and extend. In that sense, the opposite of (or, on a more positive note, the complement to) the NK model, with its rigid structure.

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  15. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    31. sij

    Dr Adam Posen - Brexit is the UK having a trade war with itself.

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  16. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    2. velj

    "Le Brexit, c'est le Royaume-Uni qui se lance une guerre commerciale contre lui-même" ()

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    1) As a retrospective, this was the key tipping point, over 4 years ago, when every Front bencher except notably Chuka Umuuna, let themselves be convinced that a life long Eurosceptic was no longer a eurosceptic The rot started here, principles & integrity shelved

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  18. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    1. velj

    An ordinary day in an extraordinary global economy.... I took an idea to the editors of Bloomberg Markets - how about we capture what a single day looks like in the world economy? And they bit... So we sent reporters and photogs out around the world:

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  19. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    What is the Glasgow Effect? explains how global trade contributed to the Scottish city's boom, as well as the heart-wrenching bust that ensued on the River Clyde.

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  20. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    31. sij

    “But slowing imports are a sign of slower trade and economic growth—not a revival of U.S. manufacturing, which remains in a slump.”

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