Looks to me like a sporadic workplace cluster, rather than being representative of wider outbreak dynamics in the population. 2/2
-
-
Show this threadThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
This Tweet is unavailable.
-
Good thread on it with more detail here:https://twitter.com/CovidSerology/status/1308919750001647618?s=19 …
End of conversation
-
-
-
Adam, you dont think that has anything to do w/Japan's anemic PCR testing? They test at <5% of the per capita rate of the US & UK. Dont test, dont find. Through April, Tokyo's PCR test+ % was ~40%: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52466834 …
-
Obviously Japan's PCR testing rate has nothing to do with this particular study which involved testing for antibodies. Relatively low testing in Japan? Sure, but number of deaths is surely the most important variable, unless you're going to claim they're hiding the bodies?
- Show replies
New conversation -
-
-
Japanese population had refrained from social activities such as traveling and dining out during the summer vacation (mid Aug) which you could verify from community mobility reports or other POI data, contributing to the slowdown of the spread. So obvious to us living in Japan.
-
If that’s true and it slowed spread, then how does this explain seroprevalence antibodies going up from 5% to 47% during summer?
- Show replies
New conversation -
-
-
Basically, PCR testing is relatively limited to symptomatic patients in Japan. There is a gap between infection and symptom onset. The delay can be explained by the gap. Indeed, PCR positive rate started to increase in early July.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
The way they handle positive samples is interesting. With significantly higher "retest" rate for positive samples on first test, making their prevalence estimates successively more biased.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.