Infection control, test + trace etc. can increase the available budget, and traveller quarantines can reduce imported cases (& hence potential for new transmission chains). Even so, several places are now reintroducing measures after new outbreaks following initial reopening. 2/
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With winter approaching in Europe, and schools still yet to reopen in some places, finding an effective, sustainable balance of measures will be crucial if countries want to avoid damaging second waves. 3/
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Good local-level situational awareness will be particularly important here. How many new cases are already in quarantine? How are new clusters of cases happening and how are they linked? How can we be confident there aren't asymptomatic infections in high-risk environments? 4/4
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A friend of mine with a mild case of Covid has developed serious, debilitating complications. This isn't uncommon and understanding on this is evolving. I wonder if these more serious than previous thought cases been factored into decision making when evaluating risk.
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Our research indicates it's 'sensor lag.' We don't see the effects until the situation slips too far back into the danger zone. We're watching Japan now to see. If Japan can return to prior low rates, that indicates they could maintain them if they'd known they were slipping.pic.twitter.com/DbC5OFq94g
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This is a well know effect in human in the loop control systems. Similar to phugoid oscillations with aircraft. The operator doesn't sense they're in trouble until after the trouble occurs.
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Returning to normal should not be the goal as the virus rampages around the globe—but rather to normalize and enhance the successful adjustments and precautions for the time being. We should invest in what works and make it better.
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This is a sensible way to think about it. It's not communicated well by the government however.
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