I'm getting asked more about the 'k' parameter that describes variation in the reproduction number, R (i.e. describes superspreading). But what does this parameter actually mean? A short statistical thread... 1/
Show this thread
-
Alternatively, we can estimate k from the distribution of outbreak sizes after infections are introduced to a new location, using a simple transmission model: https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-67 7/
Show this thread
As 'k' is a bit hard to interpret directly, we can also use it to calculate what proportion of infections generate a given amount of transmission, e.g. does transmission follow something like a '20/80 rule'? Here's a conversion table for R=3... 8/8pic.twitter.com/Y9ho4Vs82v
-
-
So... As a practical conclusion, this suggests that maintaining social distancing really matters, doesn't it? If an individual drops that precaution, they can become a "super-spreader" if they become infected. Someone who maintains social distancing wouldn't.
Thanks. Twitter will use this info to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Adam, as you know, I do wonder if bimodal / multi-distribution "r" is right (of course, r in some sense is just some integer number in each case - it is how we model r which is the interesting question in the classic all models are wrong, some are useful)
-
Viral genomics I think also can inform here, and then also if we can get better location / context of transmission events, and these "high k" or "super-spreading" events might well be location specific then we can both build better models can - critically - target NPI better.
- Show replies
New conversation -
-
-
Surely it’s good news if K lower as we come off peak of Covid? As then only 9% need to become immune to stop the rapid spread- or is that all too simple?
Thanks. Twitter will use this info to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
What is the k implied by the assumptions of your model (Poisson-ish contact distribution convoluted with binomial infectivity) on the contact tracing/ isolation effectiveness paper?
Thanks. Twitter will use this info to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
People are getting overexcited by k. It's a function of people's behaviour. Initially most people were careful so k was quite low. Over time, k will rise closer to influenza.
Thanks. Twitter will use this info to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Because Math has imaginary numbers... the rest of us have to pretend to understand. K + Ro might be dating but their not likely to reproduce and so - help. We do want to understand
Thanks. Twitter will use this info to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Still is subjective.
Thanks. Twitter will use this info to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Hi Adam, have you read the work of
@gro_tsen about about that parameter (or more generally the variance of contact PD) has a dual role (in terms of extinction proba vs final attack rate) when you look at spreader vs receivers distribution ? Really fascinatingThanks. Twitter will use this info to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
For a given estimate of R, does the herd immunity rate fall with k? is there an analytical relationship?
Thanks. Twitter will use this info to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.