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AdamJKucharski's profile
Adam Kucharski
Adam Kucharski
Adam Kucharski
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@AdamJKucharski

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Adam KucharskiVerified account

@AdamJKucharski

Mathematician/epidemiologist at @LSHTM. @WellcomeTrust fellow and @TEDFellow. Author of The Rules of Contagion. Views own.

kucharski.io
Joined January 2012

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    Adam Kucharski‏Verified account @AdamJKucharski 20 May 2020

    Adam Kucharski Retweeted Adam Kucharski

    Update: new serological data suggests around 7% of Stockholm had been infected by early/mid April: https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyheter-och-press/nyhetsarkiv/2020/maj/forsta-resultaten-fran-pagaende-undersokning-av-antikroppar-for-covid-19-virus/ …https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1254084767496261632 …

    Adam Kucharski added,

    Adam KucharskiVerified account @AdamJKucharski
    This modelling study from Sweden suggests 26% of Stockholm county will have been infected by May 1st (https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/contentassets/2da059f90b90458d8454a04955d1697f/skattning-peakdag-antal-infekterade-covid-19-utbrottet-stockholms-lan-februari-april-2020.pdf …). However, our estimates of under-reporting suggest only 5-10% have been infected so far (https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/global_cfr_estimates.html …). So what's going on? 1/
    Show this thread
    11:17 AM - 20 May 2020
    • 89 Retweets
    • 221 Likes
    • Asty Purba ⛵️ Alex Krause (a19grey.eth) Lawrence Reisler Smythelan vertigo Africano 🇰🇪 🇹🇿🐒 さやか/Sayaka Moanaaaa
    14 replies 89 retweets 221 likes
      1. Adam Kucharski‏Verified account @AdamJKucharski 20 May 2020

        Thanks to @BishopBlougram for the link

        1 reply 3 retweets 15 likes
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      1. Peter Ould (Morecambe / Wise)  🦖‏ @PeterOuld 20 May 2020
        Replying to @AdamJKucharski

        Adam - what's the latest on serological studies in the UK?

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. gk‏ @GeraldKrasner1 20 May 2020
        Replying to @AdamJKucharski

        So maybe 20% now

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      2. Acroman39‏ @croman39 20 May 2020
        Replying to @AdamJKucharski

        Does include estimate for further development of antibodies in more recently recovered people?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Carlos Duarte‏ @CarlosFMDuarte 20 May 2020
        Replying to @croman39 @AdamJKucharski

        I think @AdamJKucharski already corrected for that, by pointing stating mid/early April. Actual testing was conducted in Week 18 (27th April - 3rd May)

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. Michael Duncan‏ @blacktumshie 20 May 2020
        Replying to @AdamJKucharski

        Michael Duncan Retweeted Prof. Feynman

        https://twitter.com/ProfFeynman/status/1010935192901554176?s=19 …

        Michael Duncan added,

        1:00
        Prof. Feynman @ProfFeynman
        It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong. In that simple statement is the key to science. pic.twitter.com/q9p6zdHAYf
        0 replies 1 retweet 19 likes
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      2. Jonas Persson‏ @BishopBlougram 20 May 2020
        Replying to @AdamJKucharski

        A study of 3,200 HCWs in Stockholm looking both at PCR and antibodies to gauge the current prevalence found that 15% had been exposed (PCR and/or antibodies) as of last week. Caveat: HCWs only. Prevalence among all Stockholmers probably lower.https://news.cision.com/se/karolinska-universitetssjukhuset/r/stor-studie-kartlagger-coronasmitta-i-stockholm,c3114898 …

        2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
      3. Dave‏ @davecoughlan80 20 May 2020
        Replying to @BishopBlougram @AdamJKucharski

        This goes against the NYC experience. Cuomo pointing out how HCWs experience significantly less infection than the public.pic.twitter.com/qaRUiJWiak

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Chris‏ @cm_richards 20 May 2020
        Replying to @AdamJKucharski

        pic.twitter.com/YON8grR1wm

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      2. Snorre Eikeland‏ @SnorreEikeland 20 May 2020
        Replying to @AdamJKucharski

        That still seems high if you calculate backwards from ICU admissions using French data published by Saljie et al. Would indicate around 5% infected (not adjusted for lag).pic.twitter.com/i81AlsFysC

        2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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