Even if we can't fully stop transmission, sustained changes in behaviour (e.g. self-isolation for week when ill, hand washing, reducing close-knit interactions where possible) could dramatically reduce spread.
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Early in outbreak, each COVID-19 case infects ~2.5 others on average. There's ~5 days between one infection and next, so we'd expect one case to lead to 2.5^6 = 244 more cases in a month. If we can halve transmission, so each infects 1.25 others instead, we'd expect 4 more cases.
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(Above calculation assumes reproduction number of 2.5 and serial interval of 5 days for COVID-19 in early stages of an outbreak. These are obviously rough calculations based on average values – second value comes from 1.25^6=3.8)
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Quick clarification on this: the calculation gives the number of *new* cases that we'd expect to be appearing in a month's time – to get the total cases overall, we'd need to add up all the generations of infection. Still, same conclusion: we really need to reduce transmission.
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Govt policy in terms of saving lives has been a dud. The do nothing strategy is not going away and the deliberate mass infection policy is to continue as the diabolical Matt Hancock is emoting.
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Look forward to pub of model with all assumptions. No one questions basic math. Rather your assumptions on impact of policy on lowering R. What evidence that 2 modest policies lead to 50% reduction (as govt said thu)? Given evidence from other countries, this seems way off.
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Thank you for your orderly info.
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Interesting thing that for all the pseudo science spouted by Cumming’s super forecasting mob, is they don’t seem to get the basics of decision and risk analysis. Doing nothing is a decision.
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