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Iran reported two #COVID19 deaths on Wed. Very(!) rough back-of-the-envelope: assuming CFR~2%, would suggest ~100 cases two weeks earlier. Assuming R is around 2 and serial interval a week, could mean few hundred community cases by now. So plausible we're already seeing exports.https://twitter.com/BogochIsaac/status/1230672785644703744 …
Caveat: there are more details to emerge about the Iran local/exported cases, and the above calculation makes a lot of very strong assumptions, e.g. about local transmission, pattern of severity, reporting, connectivity to other locations - all could influence estimates.
For context, three internationally exported cases from Wuhan in Jan were enough for @MRC_Outbreak to estimate in the region of a thousand local Wuhan cases based on flight connectivity https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/2019-nCoV-outbreak-report-17-01-2020.pdf …
Proposal: use 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗱 cases to estimate epidemiological parameters. Rationale: Practically no ascertainment bias (unlike case numbers, recoveries are trivially 'detected' and reported) Limitation: recoveries lag infections but this should not affect doubl. time est.pic.twitter.com/gqrBDZ2WxJ
Did you see the recent Canadian case acquired it from strictly Iran travel.
Has anyone seen/done a viability study with temp and humidity for this virus?
there's a preprint on humidity impact:https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022467v1.full.pdf+html …
I did the same calculation and got to 800 cases in Iran now. Making use of J-IDEA figures. CFR outside China of ~1%, doubling each 5 days. Also used the 2 weeks, although time between infection and death looks more like 3 weeks period to me, which would make it roughly 2,000
in Italy at the moment there are 6 serious cases. considering that mild cases are on average 4/5 of the total, we can estimate as probable a population of 30 infected subjects.
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