Du kannst deine Tweets vom Web aus und über Drittapplikationen mit einem Standort versehen, wie z.B. deiner Stadt oder deinem genauen Standort. Du hast jederzeit die Möglichkeit, Standortangaben nachträglich zu löschen. Mehr erfahren
Our updated @cmmid_lshtm pre-print (now in press) estimates that R in Wuhan declined from 2.4 (95% CI:1.2-4.8) to 1.1 (0.41-2.4) in last two weeks of Jan. (Note: we didn't use recent case counts from Wuhan, just early data and exported cases/infections) https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.31.20019901v2 …pic.twitter.com/ScVOFtQydU
It wasn't possible to estimate the direct impact of specific control measures from available data (behaviour change is also likely to be a factor), but does suggest a big reduction in transmission coinciding with late Jan interventions.
We can't estimate R precisely for more recent days unless we rely on the Wuhan case data, which has a lot of uncertainty around it - the recent decline in confirmed cases would give an R<1 estimate, but we aren't confident yet that this is a robust signal.
Our results provide some initial evidence that R was down to around 1 by the end of Jan. The key question, which we're currently investigating, is whether it has since dropped below this crucial value.
Early data on growth in cases outside China also suggests an 'under control' value of R~1, so we may be seeing initial evidence of an upper bound for the effectiveness of widespread control measures.https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1229374844770361344?s=20 …
They ran out of test kits. Use CT for diagnosing. I hope the figures are right.
Thanks. In your previous work https://cmmid.github.io/ncov/wuhan_early_dynamics/index.html … eventual reduction in transmission was attributed to mounting herd immunity, not to control measures, if I interpret Figure 1C correctly ? So your new work is encouraging sign that control or even containment is possible.
Question re. Fig. 1G x-axis is predicted/modelled number of exports. i.e. a proxy for the 'real' number of exports. But shouldn't the y-axis as "detected" exports be only a fraction of actual exports (unless there is 100% ascertainment) so the regression slope should be < 1?
What is R?
R is the average number of people that each infected person goes on to infect. So an R of 2 means every infected person will infect two more people on average. R > 1 means that an epidemic will grow. R < 1 means it will eventually shrink. Control measures aim to reduce R
Mizumoto article on 2/13 indicated R of 7. Do you believe R went from 7 to 2.4, or is difference due to calculation/assumptions? Do you have opinion/estimate on R w/o control measures?
Twitter ist möglicherweise überlastet oder hat einen vorübergehenden Schluckauf. Probiere es erneut oder besuche Twitter Status für weitere Informationen.
