Saw an H1N1 study suggesting that limiting air travel will do little to stop the spread. "...surprisingly little value in delaying epidemics, unless almost all travel ceases very soon after epidemics are detected"https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.0030212 …
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If you go to fig 4 in this paper, you will see they come to similar conclusions on travel.https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext#.XjTJrgpjaPI.twitter …
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and as well that logistic growth in the early stages when it is far away from the critical value... looks indistinguishable from exponential growth.
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