We've updated @cmmid_lshtm analysis of #nCoV2019 transmission to compare with observed cases reported internationally, and estimate potential for outbreaks in new areas (assuming similar transmission to Wuhan). https://cmmid.github.io/ncov/wuhan_early_dynamics/index.html … A full pre-print will be online shortly 1/
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Comparing model outputs to observed data, we noticed some countries had more cases with a link to Wuhan had more cases than the model predicted, notably France, USA, and Australia... 2/pic.twitter.com/k4U536gibe
1 reply 4 proslijeđena tweeta 4 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđaPrikaži ovu nit -
This may be result of increased surveillance/detection as awareness of 2019-nCoV grew, suggesting earlier exported cases may have missed; it may also be the result of increased travel out of Wuhan immediately prior to travel restrictions being introduced on 23rd January. 3/
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To assess potential for outbreaks to occur in new places, we used our estimates of the reproduction number to simulate new outbreaks with potential individual-level variation in transmission (i.e. ‘superspreading’ events). 4/
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Such variation increases the fragility of transmission chains, making it less likely that an outbreak will take off following a single introduction https://www.nature.com/articles/nature04153 … 5/
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We estimated a single introduction of 2019-nCoV with SARS-like or MERS-like individual-level variation in transmission and Wuhan-like reproduction number would have a 15–25% probability of causing a large outbreak 6/pic.twitter.com/gLtOKB7P7u
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Assuming SARS-like variation and Wuhan-like transmission, we estimated that once more than three infections have been introduced into a new location, there is an over 50% chance that an outbreak will occur 7/pic.twitter.com/YiAplVt43e
7 replies 70 proslijeđenih tweetova 75 korisnika označava da im se sviđaPrikaži ovu nit -
Odgovor korisnicima @AdamJKucharski @MackayIM
what defines "an outbreak"? What are we experiencing now?
1 reply 1 proslijeđeni tweet 2 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
This refers to an outbreak in a location where there hasn’t been one yet (e.g. a case is introduced to a new country and leads to ongoing transmission).
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Odgovor korisnicima @AdamJKucharski @MackayIM
thanks. at this point i'm feeling like the collateral damage on the global economy might be more damning than the biological affects of the disease itself. accurate?
1 reply 0 proslijeđenih tweetova 1 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa - Još 2 druga odgovora
Novi razgovor -
Čini se da učitavanje traje već neko vrijeme.
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