We've updated @cmmid_lshtm analysis of #nCoV2019 transmission to compare with observed cases reported internationally, and estimate potential for outbreaks in new areas (assuming similar transmission to Wuhan). https://cmmid.github.io/ncov/wuhan_early_dynamics/index.html … A full pre-print will be online shortly 1/
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Great work! Do these transmission risk estimates for imported cases refer to detected importations? Would the risk be the same if the cases weren't detected?
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Yes, analysis focuses on imported cases that will be detected. Could obviously include undetected in model, but no way to estimate it. Although comparison with observed exports suggests detection may have improved
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Are there estimates of the true transmission homogeneity of nCoV?
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@C_Althaus had a look, but don’t think there was enough data yet to get a clear estimate - Još 1 odgovor
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The incubation and infection parameters look off to me. I thought incubation was well beyond 10 days, no?pic.twitter.com/6TnaX9seRh
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The latest papers I’ve read (NEMJ ... they’re starting to blur) have 2.9 to 12 days as the 95% CI The first German case seems to have infected someone on the first or second day after infection.
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Thank you! Very clear explanations and working on the right questions!
Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
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Pojawiają się sugestie, że wirus zaraża głównie osoby z Haplogroupą O-M175 . Ja w to nie wierzę, ale chciałbym usłyszeć pana opinię :D
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Čini se da učitavanje traje već neko vrijeme.
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