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AdamJKucharski's profile
Adam Kucharski
Adam Kucharski
Adam Kucharski
@AdamJKucharski

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Adam Kucharski

@AdamJKucharski

Mathematician/epidemiologist at @LSHTM. @WellcomeTrust fellow and @TEDFellow. New book The Rules of Contagion out 13th Feb: http://amzn.to/2rlONRP 

kucharski.io
Joined January 2012

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    1. Adam Kucharski‏ @AdamJKucharski Jan 31
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      We've updated @cmmid_lshtm analysis of #nCoV2019 transmission to compare with observed cases reported internationally, and estimate potential for outbreaks in new areas (assuming similar transmission to Wuhan). https://cmmid.github.io/ncov/wuhan_early_dynamics/index.html … A full pre-print will be online shortly 1/

      2 replies 36 retweets 55 likes
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    2. Adam Kucharski‏ @AdamJKucharski Jan 31
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      Comparing model outputs to observed data, we noticed some countries had more cases with a link to Wuhan had more cases than the model predicted, notably France, USA, and Australia... 2/pic.twitter.com/k4U536gibe

      1 reply 4 retweets 4 likes
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    3. Adam Kucharski‏ @AdamJKucharski Jan 31
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      This may be result of increased surveillance/detection as awareness of 2019-nCoV grew, suggesting earlier exported cases may have missed; it may also be the result of increased travel out of Wuhan immediately prior to travel restrictions being introduced on 23rd January. 3/

      1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
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    4. Adam Kucharski‏ @AdamJKucharski Jan 31
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      To assess potential for outbreaks to occur in new places, we used our estimates of the reproduction number to simulate new outbreaks with potential individual-level variation in transmission (i.e. ‘superspreading’ events). 4/

      1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
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    5. Adam Kucharski‏ @AdamJKucharski Jan 31
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      Such variation increases the fragility of transmission chains, making it less likely that an outbreak will take off following a single introduction https://www.nature.com/articles/nature04153 … 5/

      1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
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    6. Adam Kucharski‏ @AdamJKucharski Jan 31
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      We estimated a single introduction of 2019-nCoV with SARS-like or MERS-like individual-level variation in transmission and Wuhan-like reproduction number would have a 15–25% probability of causing a large outbreak 6/pic.twitter.com/gLtOKB7P7u

      2 replies 13 retweets 25 likes
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      Adam Kucharski‏ @AdamJKucharski Jan 31
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      Assuming SARS-like variation and Wuhan-like transmission, we estimated that once more than three infections have been introduced into a new location, there is an over 50% chance that an outbreak will occur 7/pic.twitter.com/YiAplVt43e

      7:42 AM - 31 Jan 2020
      • 65 Retweets
      • 71 Likes
      • ɪᴀɴ ᴍ ᴍᴀᴄᴋᴀʏ, ᴘʜᴅ 🦠🤧🧬🥼🦟 Kristen K. Coleman TheGoodGirl Ranya Mulchandani Dr Kevin Purcell W.V.O. Chloroquine Richard Weiss Stevie_d Thushan de Silva
      7 replies 65 retweets 71 likes
        1. Adam Kucharski‏ @AdamJKucharski Jan 31
          • Report Tweet

          As always, note that these results depend on some strong assumptions (i.e. transmission in new areas will resemble Wuhan, which it may not). We will continue to update as we get better info 8/8

          5 replies 3 retweets 17 likes
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        2. Ben Kelly‏ @kellyreid Jan 31
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          Replying to @AdamJKucharski @MackayIM

          what defines "an outbreak"? What are we experiencing now?

          1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
        3. Adam Kucharski‏ @AdamJKucharski Jan 31
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          Replying to @kellyreid @MackayIM

          This refers to an outbreak in a location where there hasn’t been one yet (e.g. a case is introduced to a new country and leads to ongoing transmission).

          1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
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        1. CAPT Groyper, USN (retired)‏ @MikeBaptist6 Jan 31
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          Replying to @AdamJKucharski @MackayIM

          CC: @HarmlessYardDog

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        1. Bo Li‏ @mcboli Feb 1
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          Replying to @AdamJKucharski

          @AdamJKucharski Had a question about the 3 infections in one place. Is it three people in one area at the same time? Or three people at different times in one state/province?

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        2. Sylvia Woolf‏ @WoolfSylvia Feb 1
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          Replying to @AdamJKucharski

          Do you have any size range when you say “location?” I’m wondering if by location you mean a country, a state, a city...? And obviously, those vary by size. Sorry if this was clarified and I missed it.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Sylvia Woolf‏ @WoolfSylvia Feb 1
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          Replying to @WoolfSylvia @AdamJKucharski

          And thank you for all the work you and all of the professionals are doing to bring nuanced and responsible attention to this pandemic.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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