We've updated @cmmid_lshtm analysis of #nCoV2019 transmission to compare with observed cases reported internationally, and estimate potential for outbreaks in new areas (assuming similar transmission to Wuhan). https://cmmid.github.io/ncov/wuhan_early_dynamics/index.html … A full pre-print will be online shortly 1/
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As always, note that these results depend on some strong assumptions (i.e. transmission in new areas will resemble Wuhan, which it may not). We will continue to update as we get better info 8/8
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what defines "an outbreak"? What are we experiencing now?
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This refers to an outbreak in a location where there hasn’t been one yet (e.g. a case is introduced to a new country and leads to ongoing transmission).
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@AdamJKucharski Had a question about the 3 infections in one place. Is it three people in one area at the same time? Or three people at different times in one state/province?Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Do you have any size range when you say “location?” I’m wondering if by location you mean a country, a state, a city...? And obviously, those vary by size. Sorry if this was clarified and I missed it.
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And thank you for all the work you and all of the professionals are doing to bring nuanced and responsible attention to this pandemic.
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