We've updated @cmmid_lshtm analysis of #nCoV2019 transmission to compare with observed cases reported internationally, and estimate potential for outbreaks in new areas (assuming similar transmission to Wuhan). https://cmmid.github.io/ncov/wuhan_early_dynamics/index.html … A full pre-print will be online shortly 1/
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To assess potential for outbreaks to occur in new places, we used our estimates of the reproduction number to simulate new outbreaks with potential individual-level variation in transmission (i.e. ‘superspreading’ events). 4/
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Such variation increases the fragility of transmission chains, making it less likely that an outbreak will take off following a single introduction https://www.nature.com/articles/nature04153 … 5/
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We estimated a single introduction of 2019-nCoV with SARS-like or MERS-like individual-level variation in transmission and Wuhan-like reproduction number would have a 15–25% probability of causing a large outbreak 6/pic.twitter.com/gLtOKB7P7u
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Assuming SARS-like variation and Wuhan-like transmission, we estimated that once more than three infections have been introduced into a new location, there is an over 50% chance that an outbreak will occur 7/pic.twitter.com/YiAplVt43e
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As always, note that these results depend on some strong assumptions (i.e. transmission in new areas will resemble Wuhan, which it may not). We will continue to update as we get better info 8/8
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