Comparing model outputs to observed data, we noticed some countries had more cases with a link to Wuhan had more cases than the model predicted, notably France, USA, and Australia... 2/pic.twitter.com/k4U536gibe
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Comparing model outputs to observed data, we noticed some countries had more cases with a link to Wuhan had more cases than the model predicted, notably France, USA, and Australia... 2/pic.twitter.com/k4U536gibe
This may be result of increased surveillance/detection as awareness of 2019-nCoV grew, suggesting earlier exported cases may have missed; it may also be the result of increased travel out of Wuhan immediately prior to travel restrictions being introduced on 23rd January. 3/
To assess potential for outbreaks to occur in new places, we used our estimates of the reproduction number to simulate new outbreaks with potential individual-level variation in transmission (i.e. ‘superspreading’ events). 4/
Such variation increases the fragility of transmission chains, making it less likely that an outbreak will take off following a single introduction https://www.nature.com/articles/nature04153 … 5/
We estimated a single introduction of 2019-nCoV with SARS-like or MERS-like individual-level variation in transmission and Wuhan-like reproduction number would have a 15–25% probability of causing a large outbreak 6/pic.twitter.com/gLtOKB7P7u
Assuming SARS-like variation and Wuhan-like transmission, we estimated that once more than three infections have been introduced into a new location, there is an over 50% chance that an outbreak will occur 7/pic.twitter.com/YiAplVt43e
As always, note that these results depend on some strong assumptions (i.e. transmission in new areas will resemble Wuhan, which it may not). We will continue to update as we get better info 8/8
@Laurie_Garrett important modeling about how many imported cases could spark an outbreak
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