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With episode 1 featuring
@cmmid_lshtm’s very own@rozeggo....https://twitter.com/ri_science/status/1224302313378123776 …
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Adam Kucharski proslijedio/la je Tweet
We're hosting a special
#coronavirus lecture today at 5.15 pm. From modelling the spread of the outbreak to supporting Africa's response planning, learn more about our latest research. All welcome! Can't make it? Tune into our live stream
http://bit.ly/2S6tFIX #nCoV2019pic.twitter.com/PRpHqdvdIg
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Adam Kucharski proslijedio/la je Tweet
Our analysis of early
#2019nCoV dynamics is now up as a pre-print. We combined data on cases within Wuhan and exported internationally to estimate transmission patterns and potential implications for outbreaks elsewhere. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.31.20019901v1 …pic.twitter.com/w6i3FWraeg
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We undoubtedly need to find better ways to use diverse data source to identify outbreaks promptly. But we also need to be sceptical of post-hoc claims about performance.
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Apparently AI managed to flag
#2019nCoV as early as 31st December. Maybe it managed to find a signal in all the prominent news reports describing the outbreak... https://www.wired.com/story/ai-epidemiologist-wuhan-public-health-warnings/ …pic.twitter.com/AjyhZNzdDg
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Adam Kucharski proslijedio/la je Tweet
New study on
#cervicalCancer from@cmmid_lshtm Mark Jit & colleagueshttps://twitter.com/TheLancet/status/1223031450116804609 …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Some further reading if you want more technical details: - Landmark paper on superspreading estimation and modelling by
@jlloydsmith et al http://nature.berkeley.edu/getzlab/Preprints/LloydSmith_Nature_Total.pdf … - Analysis of individual-level variation for MERS-CoV with@C_Althaus https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES2015.20.25.21167 …Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
There's been a lot of interest in this aspect of our analysis, so we built an online tool to allow people to explore different assumptions/scenarios further https://cmmid-lshtm.shinyapps.io/new_outbreak_probability/ … https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1223270381097758720 …pic.twitter.com/FpbUelilGb
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Our analysis of early
#2019nCoV dynamics is now up as a pre-print. We combined data on cases within Wuhan and exported internationally to estimate transmission patterns and potential implications for outbreaks elsewhere. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.31.20019901v1 …pic.twitter.com/w6i3FWraeg
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Worth reiterating that if R>1, these kinds of models will inevitably produce exponential growth - it’s not really a result, it’s just a reflection of implicit model assumptions.https://twitter.com/laurie_garrett/status/1224042064045912064 …
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Adam Kucharski proslijedio/la je Tweet
From
@WHOWPRO When to use a mask?
For healthy people wear a mask only if you are taking care of a person with suspected 2019-nCoV infection
If you are coughing or sneezing wear a mask
#novelcoronavirus2019#2019nC0Vpic.twitter.com/GilUdahL9G
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Adam Kucharski proslijedio/la je Tweet
This is a great paper, but I have some reservations about applying the conclusion directly to ncov2019. Tg might be longer, local R0s (esp initially) might be lower, and bold statements are being made about vaccines.
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A lot of countries are closing borders and cancelling flights. Might slow the expansion of
#2019nCoV, but not clear that it will stop it completely - here’s a study from a few years ago that looked at this question for pandemic flu:https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.0030212 …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Sensible
#nCoV advice in newspapers here in Singapore - there’s evidence masks can reduce onward transmission if you’re ill, but won’t necessarily prevent infection (and could possibly increase risk by giving false sense of security)pic.twitter.com/Y9Cv7bKARG
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Adam Kucharski proslijedio/la je Tweet
Assessing the extent of mild infections is tricky during early stages of an outbreak, when testing and medical capacity is strained; it requires screening of appropriate populations. Useful methods developed in 2009 influenza epidemic; there was considerable initial uncertainty.https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1223549330910601220 …
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More here, focusing on the 2009 influenza pandemichttps://www.bmj.com/content/339/bmj.b2840 …
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A reminder about the challenges of estimating the case fatality rate of an infection in real-time - because we don’t yet know the final outcome of all the cases who are currently ill, estimates can be heavily biased (example shown below for Ebola) https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(14)61706-2/fulltext …pic.twitter.com/uboRfaFBhy
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Adam Kucharski proslijedio/la je Tweet
The "HIV"
#nCoV#nCoV2019 paper draws crazy conclusions from flimsy data. There is no sign of recombination with HIV & no sign of "engineering". And we need a better way to discourage scientists spreading this kind of misinformation.https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1223337991168380928 …
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Several unfounded claims emerging around
#nCoV2019 sequences - worth following researchers like@trvrb@arambaut@K_G_Andersen for thoughtful, balanced analysis of what is (and isn’t) happeninghttps://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1223337991168380928 …
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