Adam Kucharski

@AdamJKucharski

Mathematician/epidemiologist at . fellow and . New book The Rules of Contagion out 13th Feb:

Vrijeme pridruživanja: siječanj 2012.

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  1. prije 2 sata
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    We're hosting a special lecture today at 5.15 pm. From modelling the spread of the outbreak to supporting Africa's response planning, learn more about our latest research. All welcome! Can't make it? Tune into our live stream 👉

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    Our analysis of early dynamics is now up as a pre-print. We combined data on cases within Wuhan and exported internationally to estimate transmission patterns and potential implications for outbreaks elsewhere.

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  4. prije 6 sati

    We undoubtedly need to find better ways to use diverse data source to identify outbreaks promptly. But we also need to be sceptical of post-hoc claims about performance.

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  5. prije 6 sati

    Apparently AI managed to flag as early as 31st December. Maybe it managed to find a signal in all the prominent news reports describing the outbreak...

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    prije 6 sati
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  7. Some further reading if you want more technical details: - Landmark paper on superspreading estimation and modelling by et al - Analysis of individual-level variation for MERS-CoV with

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  8. There's been a lot of interest in this aspect of our analysis, so we built an online tool to allow people to explore different assumptions/scenarios further

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  9. Code and data openly available here:

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  10. Our analysis of early dynamics is now up as a pre-print. We combined data on cases within Wuhan and exported internationally to estimate transmission patterns and potential implications for outbreaks elsewhere.

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  11. Worth reiterating that if R>1, these kinds of models will inevitably produce exponential growth - it’s not really a result, it’s just a reflection of implicit model assumptions.

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    2. velj

    From When to use a mask? 😷 1️⃣ For healthy people wear a mask only if you are taking care of a person with suspected 2019-nCoV infection 2️⃣ If you are coughing or sneezing wear a mask

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    2. velj
    Odgovor korisniku/ci

    This is a great paper, but I have some reservations about applying the conclusion directly to ncov2019. Tg might be longer, local R0s (esp initially) might be lower, and bold statements are being made about vaccines.

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  14. 2. velj

    A lot of countries are closing borders and cancelling flights. Might slow the expansion of , but not clear that it will stop it completely - here’s a study from a few years ago that looked at this question for pandemic flu:

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  15. 2. velj

    Sensible advice in newspapers here in Singapore - there’s evidence masks can reduce onward transmission if you’re ill, but won’t necessarily prevent infection (and could possibly increase risk by giving false sense of security)

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    Assessing the extent of mild infections is tricky during early stages of an outbreak, when testing and medical capacity is strained; it requires screening of appropriate populations. Useful methods developed in 2009 influenza epidemic; there was considerable initial uncertainty.

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  17. 1. velj

    More here, focusing on the 2009 influenza pandemic

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  18. 1. velj

    A reminder about the challenges of estimating the case fatality rate of an infection in real-time - because we don’t yet know the final outcome of all the cases who are currently ill, estimates can be heavily biased (example shown below for Ebola)

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    1. velj

    The "HIV" paper draws crazy conclusions from flimsy data. There is no sign of recombination with HIV & no sign of "engineering". And we need a better way to discourage scientists spreading this kind of misinformation.

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  20. 1. velj

    Several unfounded claims emerging around sequences - worth following researchers like for thoughtful, balanced analysis of what is (and isn’t) happening

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