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. CMI ExCo. “God-level nerd”. “Superstar actuary”. Own views.

Londoncovidactuaries.org/members/Born 1977Joined June 2011

1,185 Following

20K Followers

stuart mcdonald’s Tweets

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Office for National Statistics (ONS)

Jan 31

ONS deaths data has been released for week ending 20 Jan. 1,568 more deaths were recorded in-week compared to the 5-year average. That’s 11% more - another significant excess. Year-to-date there have been 48,168 deaths recorded, 15% more than the 5-year average.

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Over a million views of this misleading video! All this year-on-year comparison shows is that states with low vacc rates were hit badly by covid in 2021, and hence look relatively better in 2022. States with higher vacc rates did better in 2021, so 2022 looks relatively worse.

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Michael George

@Mike_aka_Logiqx

Feb 2

I've resisted the temptation to comment on antivax content but this video keeps popping up. The data analysed does not show what is claimed in the video. It's simply a case of rudimentary stats being twisted to suit a prior belief. Let's have a look below the surface. 1/10

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Adele Groyer and 6 others

Feb 2

Hospital admissions with COVID in England have risen by 18% in-week. Our R estimate is approaching 1.1. Admissions were flat in the North West but rose everywhere else. London saw the biggest increase at 31%. Bed occupancy has risen by 8%.

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I do like nice round numbers.

Life expectancy assumptions could fall by 6 months if CMI proposals adopted

Feb 1

The CMI expects to confirm its plans by the end of March 2023 and publish the new model by the end of June 2023. Watch this space!

With this consultation the CMI (where I am a volunteer) is sharing it's view of the extent to which it should reflect recently observed mortality in its modelling. Expert users of the model will respond to either endorse the proposal or put forward alternative views.

Obviously "Period life expectancy" has fallen given higher death rates in the last couple of years, but that tells us nothing about the future. A fall in "Cohort life expectancy" is more troubling. It is subjective, but it means experts are more pessimistic about the future.

Some context: There are two measures of life expectancy. Period life expectancy - a calculation based on recently observed death rates. Cohort life expectancy - a projection of assumed future mortality to try to assess how long people will live. This is about the latter.

Here are some comments from my

@LCP_Actuaries

colleague Chris Tavener. "we share the concern expressed by the CMI that higher death rates seen in the latter part of 2022, and continuing into January, may be indicative of future mortality."

lcp.uk.com

The CMI has issued its consultation to help shape the next version of its mortality projection model, which is used by the majority of pension scheme trustees and sponsors in setting their funding...

The actuarial profession is beginning to express a view on the extent to which the legacy of the pandemic will affect life expectancy. The CMI is consulting on the next version of its mortality projection model. The proposal would reduce life expectancy of retirees by 6 months.

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Leyla Asadi, MD, MPH

@LeylaDAsadi

Feb 1

The excess mortality data remains a sobering statistic. The causes may be multifactorial & untangling them complicated, but it speaks to the necessity of more investment in healthcare, the social determinants of health & health research. COVID wreaks havoc directly & indirectly!

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Perhaps they shouldn’t have been standing still? 😉 merriam-webster.com/words-at-play/

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Jan 31

The Continuous Mortality investigation (CMI) has published its weekly Mortality Monitor covering deaths to 20 January. There were 26% more deaths this week than if death rates were the same as 2019. 1/3

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Age-standardised analysis from the CMI is now available. Death rates this week were 26% higher than 2019, the last pre-pandemic year. That’s another very large age-standardised excess. Over 12,000 excess deaths in the first three weeks of 2023.

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Some historical context on this week’s 15,804 death registrations in England and Wales. That has only been exceeded on 12 occasions since 2010: - 5 times during the first wave - 5 times during the second wave - 1 time last week - 1 week in 2015 (flu).

Comparisons of death counts can be distorted by population growth and ageing. The best way to compare deaths during the pandemic to prior years is to use age-standardised death rates. The CMI Mortality Monitor takes this approach. Their next update is expected later today.

Good to see a fall in both total death registrations and the excess. Excess this week is large, but similar to what we saw in Nov and early Dec. Down from the very high excesses of last 5 weeks. Last week may have been inflated a bit by catch-up after bank hols.

There were 781 deaths registered in England and Wales this week where COVID was mentioned on the death certificate. 72% of deaths with COVID mentioned on the death certificate had it listed as underlying cause.

Excess mortality for the third consecutive year in 2022

Dominik Steiger

@dominiksteiger

Jan 30

Interesting report on high excess mortality in the Netherlands by Statistics Netherlands (CBS), including calculations of period life expectancy for 2022 (the first 2022 life expectancy data I am aware of). (Thread, HT

@rubenivangaalen

)

cbs.nl

In 2022, a total of 170 thousand deaths were recorded. This is 14.5 thousand (9.3 percent) more than was expected.

Dan Neidle

@DanNeidle

Three wrong takes on the Zahawi affair

I'm going to leave the politics to others. The tax part of the Zahawi story, and therefore my role, feels over. But I wanted to sign off by correcting three takes which we’re going to hear a lot of, and I think are wrong.

taxpolicy.org.uk

I wanted to try and scotch what I think are three wrong takes on the whole Zahawi business. So a quick few words: This was David vs Goliath, and David won! No - Zahawi and his advisers made the...

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A double-gin for the first person to figure out the logic of this pricing “strategy”.

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Robert Cochran

@RobCochran1874

Not drinking gin - just perplexed by the pricing strategy for doubles. Is there any logic?

Nick Eardley

@nickeardleybbc

The PM’s letter sacking Zahawi BBC.co.uk/politics

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Three very different pandemic years! 2020 - stay at home 2021 - thank you vaccines 2022 - Omicron era hybrid immunity

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Paul Mainwood

@PaulMainwood

Jan 28

Comparing the prevalence ONS infection survey and death certificates by age (2 week lag), you can derive a "measure-that-isn't-an-IFR-but-likely-proportional-to-it". You could use moving averages, but here I've fitted a simple state-space model - involves fewer arbitrary choices.

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Marius Hauken

@mhauken

Jan 28

You're not using the Notes app on your iPhone to its full potential. 8 features you might not know about:

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Wait a minute! This would imply that the trickledown economics idea of bankers wandering their local streets, looking for worthy people to share their huge bonuses with, might not be entirely accurate.

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Claer Barrett

@ClaerB

Jan 28

A year ago, I asked @FinancialTimes readers about bonus expectations:

40% got a six-figure payout

Most intended to invest all the money and not spend a penny

13% said they’d pay lump sum off mortgage

7% bought crypto 2023's survey is here: FT.com/bonus

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Meaghan Kall

@kallmemeg

ICYMI: 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 GOV.UK Dashboard has changed how it presents COVID-19 deaths

@ONS

death certificates are now the leading measure, replacing deaths within 28 days This is because 28-day deaths is no longer a good proxy for COVID-19 deaths. A short thread🧵

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Prof. Christina Pagel

@chrischirp

Great thread summarising the brilliant intro into excess deaths by

on today's

@IndependentSage

! Interpreting death counts is *complicated* & open to misinformation. Read this to understand why! TLDR: much higher mortality last 3 yrs, esp in younger adults.

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Todd Friesen

@Todd_Friesen

@ActuaryByDay does a fantastic job of explaining deaths trends in the UK. The declining trend in cardiac deaths, and excess deaths caused by the pandemic (direct Covid and indirect emergency response times). Summary

with slides below (or click on link). twitter.com/COVID19actuary…

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does a fantastic job of explaining deaths trends in the UK. The declining trend in cardiac deaths, and excess deaths caused by the pandemic (direct Covid and indirect emergency response times). Summary 🧵with slides below (or click on link).

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Earlier today @ActuaryByDay joined the @IndependentSage weekly briefing to discuss excess deaths with @Dr_D_Robertson and @chrischirp. You can view and download the slides and watch the full video via this link. covidactuaries.org/2023/01/27/exc

Excess Deaths Presentation - COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

Earlier today

joined the

weekly briefing to discuss excess deaths with

@Dr_D_Robertson

and

@chrischirp

. You can view and download the slides and watch the full video via this link.

covidactuaries.org

Stuart joined the Independent SAGE weekly briefing on 27 January to give an excess deaths presentation. Slides and link to video here.

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Dr Duncan Robertson

@Dr_D_Robertson

We are delighted to welcome

LIVE: Join us for a discussion on excess deaths, with special guest Stuart McDonald. Prof Christina Pagel & Dr Duncan Robertson will be hosting the session, ...

to the

@IndependentSage

briefing at 1:30pm today to discuss excess deaths and to see how actuaries approach the analysis of Covid. Discussion hosted by

and me.

indie_SAGE 27.01.2023

The Nine

@BBCScotNine

Jan 26

More people died in Scotland one week this January than in any other week since 1989 – including during the Coronavirus pandemic.

says NHS pressures and waiting times are “really contributing” to this.

Once again we seem unable to get below 500 covid admissions a day. Overall admissions fairly flat this week. Admissions where covid was hospital-acquired up significantly, while community acquired is still falling. We’ve heard this tune before.

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Jan 26

Hospital admissions with COVID in England have fallen by 5% in-week but have perhaps now bottomed out. Our R estimate rising towards 1.0. Admissions rose slightly in the East, SE and SW but were still falling in other regions. Down 17% in NW. Bed occupancy has fallen by 11%.

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Independent SAGE

@IndependentSage

🚨 We are going to have a dedicated session discussing excess deaths this week, with special guest

, and

@chrischirp

@Dr_D_Robertson

hosting the session. Send us your questions via DM or email them to us on questions@independentsage.org 📩

Why we need more logic and numeracy in all walks of life, part 524,288.

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Robert Hutton

@RobDotHutton

I could not feel more warmly towards the computer scientist in @whippletom's sorry of stolen bicycles. thetimes.co.uk/article/443503

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Seemingly a lot of commonality between patterns of excess deaths in UK and Germany.

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Martin Sauter

@Martin__Sauter

Excess Deaths in Germany for 2022, now calculated for age groups. What happened: In 2020, XDs happened mainly in the group aged 80+. For 2021 this effect diffused down to the younger groups - in 2022 it stayed there and became even stronger.

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I’ve gained around 800 followers today - very unusual. Thank you to those who RTd or recommended me - it is much appreciated. It’s usually a bad sign when people are interested in what a mortality expert has to say - sadly this time is no exception. Still, welcome new followers!

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The CMI age-standardised analysis is now out. Excess is 31%, which shows how much higher death rates are so far in 2023, compared to 2019 (the last pre-pandemic year). 8,500 excess deaths already in 2023, closely tracking death rates in the first two weeks of 2021.

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The Continuous Mortality investigation (CMI) has published its weekly Mortality Monitor covering deaths to 13 January. There were 31% more deaths this week than if death rates were the same as 2019. 1/3

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Sarah Caul

@SarahCaul_ONS