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This election is so crazy that Bernie people may kiss Pete people for beating Biden. Game back on tomorrow. But for now, kumbuyha.
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Wow. Cedar Rapids. I've been there. Also, first place I've seen Biden go >15% ... in a place where Amy is at 18, and Pete is at 25.
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Frontrunners meet viability thresholds. CNN has reported Amy K meeting that more than Biden. Their camp has to be panicking.
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CNN Guy: "We have all the Buttigieg people in the center section". Yes we do. Yes we do.
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Entrance poll for 17-29 showing Pete beating Warren by 5 points, also kinda odd and unexpected.
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Buttigieg polling nearly as high as Sanders among people for whom healthcare is the most important issue is wild. This coming from a Pete-stan
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Grinnel, IA - Biden *3.3%*. Yang *7.2%*. Wow (granted, it's a college campus, but wow).
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It also, as a moderate, bodes well for other moderate candidates, or Warren.
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Personally ok with that. He has more baggage than a 747, he's a terrible debater, and is about as inspirational as a sack of seed corn.
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I just heard someone say Yang, in a major caucus location, had a bigger crowd than Joe Biden. If that's not an aberration, the calls to drop out for Biden are going to get very loud.
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Also, big loser if you get early Bidexnit? Bloomberg, people in early states pick up momentum before super tuesday and it becomes a Bernie/Warren/Pete race with Pete consolidating the moderate vote.
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OTOH, the key is whether Sanders can pick up ex-Biden people. I don't see that happening much, but who knows. His people are establishment people who almost certainly trust Warren more than Sanders, but for whom Pete or Amy are closer politically.
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The question now is where Biden voters go in following states. And what is Bernie going to do to pick up those votes. This puts Sanders in a weird place. If Warren stays around, it splits the progressive vote, esp since Warren can pick up some of the Biden people.
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Bernie will do well, probably wins. Warren does better than people expect, pulling in about 1/3 of Biden people. Buttigieg also does better than people expect, pulling in another 1/3 of the Biden people. Amy does ok, runs a distance 4th. Biden ties Yang for 5th.
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Seeing the Pete crowds, the anemic Biden crowds, and seeing big Pete crowds in Des Moines.... gonna be a long and fascinating night. (election thread)
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In the entrance poll, 40% want healthcare, 20% want to end climate change. :/ Lack of handling the latter will make the former a moot point.
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No surprise here. Part of this is they have nosebleed property taxes, paired with much fewer restrictions on building. Homes there are seen as the depreciating assets they are.https://twitter.com/henrygrabar/status/1224447034859483140 …
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The satellite caucus from Scotland came back. They voted remain.
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If Biden comes in 4th or 5th, in a state filled with old white people, having raised less than Yang, he needs to drop out and support someone actually viable.
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Drop out and endorse Buttigieg, Biden. (this result has zero meaning for Sanders, old rich retirees are Biden people, so him not getting anything there should surprise nobody). (also, no Bloomberg there? Isn't Florida his "firewall")https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1224446171227160576 …
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