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APhilosophae's profile
CulturalHusbandry
CulturalHusbandry
CulturalHusbandry
@APhilosophae

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CulturalHusbandry

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RT/Follow does not imply endorsement Gab: CulturalHusbandry Minds: CulturalHusbandry Clouthub: Aphilosophae Twetch: CulturalHusbandry@21072

sites.google.com/view/aphilosop…
Joined November 2017

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    CulturalHusbandry‏ @APhilosophae 8 Nov 2020

    The following information is provided via an anonymous data scientist and another anonymous individual who wrote a script to scrape the national ballot counting time series data of off the @nytimes website.

    4:12 PM - 8 Nov 2020
    • 4,716 Retweets
    • 9,564 Likes
    • Carrie “Put Me On A List” Bouda Florida Man in Missouri Alexei Humeniy 🇨🇱 Fab Girl Mauro Julie Boyce Bob Hugh Easton jimmyjames
    650 replies 4,716 retweets 9,564 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. CulturalHusbandry‏ @APhilosophae 8 Nov 2020

        This is based on their proprietary "Edison" data source which would ordinarily be impossible to access for people outside the press.

        20 replies 288 retweets 1,729 likes
        Show this thread
      3. CulturalHusbandry‏ @APhilosophae 8 Nov 2020

        The CSV is available here: http://s000.tinyupload.com?file_id14566999163698825215s000.tinyupload.com/?file_id145669 … And the script to generate it is here:https://pastebin.com/NkYXrJEX 

        116 replies 419 retweets 1,685 likes
        Show this thread
      4. CulturalHusbandry‏ @APhilosophae 8 Nov 2020

        I suggest that everyone back up both of these files, bc this is an extremely important data source, and we cant risk anyone taking it down.

        33 replies 323 retweets 1,676 likes
        Show this thread
      5. CulturalHusbandry‏ @APhilosophae 8 Nov 2020

        What we are looking at will be time series analysis and you will see that it is extremely difficult to create convincing synthetic times series data. By looking at the times series logs of the ballot counting process for the entire country, we can very easily spot fraud.

        15 replies 370 retweets 1,729 likes
        Show this thread
      6. CulturalHusbandry‏ @APhilosophae 8 Nov 2020

        One of the first things noticed while exploring the dataset is that there seems to be an obvious pattern in the ratio of new #Biden ballots to new #Trump ballots.pic.twitter.com/jJAAF6Pp9X

        46 replies 666 retweets 2,498 likes
        Show this thread
      7. CulturalHusbandry‏ @APhilosophae 8 Nov 2020

        As we can see on this log-log plot, for many of the counting progress updates, we see an almost constant ratio of #Biden to #Trump. It's such a regular pattern that we can actually fit a linear regression model to it with near-perfect accuracy, barring some outliers.

        15 replies 271 retweets 1,547 likes
        Show this thread
      8. CulturalHusbandry‏ @APhilosophae 8 Nov 2020

        How could this be possible? Is this a telltale sign of fraud? Surprisingly, as it will be shown, the answer is no! This is actually expected behavior. Also, we can use this weird pattern in the ballot counting to spot fraud!

        7 replies 201 retweets 1,298 likes
        Show this thread
      9. CulturalHusbandry‏ @APhilosophae 8 Nov 2020

        Here is the same pattern for Florida. We see this linear pattern again.pic.twitter.com/YyVD9oWpwN

        7 replies 201 retweets 1,185 likes
        Show this thread
      10. CulturalHusbandry‏ @APhilosophae 8 Nov 2020

        and againpic.twitter.com/hDo1kKWZpf

        5 replies 172 retweets 1,090 likes
        Show this thread
      11. CulturalHusbandry‏ @APhilosophae 8 Nov 2020

        and againpic.twitter.com/2boSyJqPcC

        7 replies 162 retweets 1,078 likes
        Show this thread
      12. CulturalHusbandry‏ @APhilosophae 8 Nov 2020

        and again all over the country. What appears to be happening is that points on the straight line are actually mail in votes. The reason they're so homogeneous across with respect to the ratio of #Biden vs #Trump votes is that they get randomly shuffled in the mail...pic.twitter.com/0gqtTqFT4R

        12 replies 241 retweets 1,281 likes
        Show this thread
      13. CulturalHusbandry‏ @APhilosophae 8 Nov 2020

        like a deck of cards. Since the ballots are randomly mixed together during transport, spanning areas occupied by multiple voting demographics, we can expect the ratio of mail-in #Biden ballots to mail-in #Trump ballots will remain relatively constant over time...

        21 replies 233 retweets 1,306 likes
        Show this thread
      14. CulturalHusbandry‏ @APhilosophae 8 Nov 2020

        and across different reporting updates. Lets dig a little deeper into this:

        6 replies 153 retweets 1,076 likes
        Show this thread
      15. CulturalHusbandry‏ @APhilosophae 8 Nov 2020

        Here is a plot of the same Florida voting data, but this time it's the ratio of #Biden to #Trump ballots, versus time. What we see is that the initial ballot reportings are very noisy and "random".pic.twitter.com/FMgzvdhJu4

        18 replies 197 retweets 1,233 likes
        Show this thread
      16. CulturalHusbandry‏ @APhilosophae 8 Nov 2020

        The initial reporting represents in-person voting. These vote reports have such large variation bc in-person voting happens across different geographic areas that have different political alignments.

        7 replies 156 retweets 1,080 likes
        Show this thread
      17. CulturalHusbandry‏ @APhilosophae 8 Nov 2020

        We can see this same pattern of noisy in-person voting, followed by homogeneous mail-in reporting in almost all cases.

        6 replies 142 retweets 1,033 likes
        Show this thread
      18. CulturalHusbandry‏ @APhilosophae 8 Nov 2020

        What we see in almost all examples across the country is that the ratio of mail-in Dem to Rep ballots is very consistent across time, but with the notable drift from Dem to slightly more Rep.pic.twitter.com/SYlV0JZ2Iz

        6 replies 193 retweets 1,090 likes
        Show this thread
      19. CulturalHusbandry‏ @APhilosophae 8 Nov 2020

        This slight drift from D to R mail-ins occurs again and again, and is likely due to outlying rural areas having more R votes. These outlying areas take longer to ship their ballots to the polling centers.

        9 replies 164 retweets 1,106 likes
        Show this thread
      20. CulturalHusbandry‏ @APhilosophae 8 Nov 2020

        Now we're getting into the really good stuff. When we see mail-in ballot counting where there isn't relatively stable ratios of D and R ballots that slightly drift R, we have an anomaly! Anomalies themselves are not necessarily fraud, but they can help us spot fraud more easily.

        7 replies 217 retweets 1,265 likes
        Show this thread
      21. CulturalHusbandry‏ @APhilosophae 8 Nov 2020

        Now let's look at some anomalies:

        6 replies 155 retweets 1,008 likes
        Show this thread
      22. CulturalHusbandry‏ @APhilosophae 8 Nov 2020

        This is the Wisconsin vote counting history log. Again, on the Y axis we have the ratio of D to R ballots in reporting batch, and on the X axis we have reporting time.pic.twitter.com/E2rP6Zpa8c

        44 replies 562 retweets 2,052 likes
        Show this thread
      23. CulturalHusbandry‏ @APhilosophae 8 Nov 2020

        Around 4am there, there is a marked shift in the ratio of D to R mail-in ballots. Based on other posts in this thread, this should not happen. This is an anomaly, and while anomalies are not always fraud, often they may point to fraud.

        43 replies 843 retweets 3,542 likes
        Show this thread
      24. CulturalHusbandry‏ @APhilosophae 8 Nov 2020

        CulturalHusbandry Retweeted Matt Smith

        so what happened just before 3am CST in Wisconsin? This did!https://twitter.com/mattsmith_news/status/1323914505638809601 …

        CulturalHusbandry added,

        0:13
        Matt SmithVerified account @mattsmith_news
        Milwaukee’s 169,000+ absentee ballots en route to county election officials pic.twitter.com/kXTiAJ8Xsp
        108 replies 1,307 retweets 3,629 likes
        Show this thread
      25. CulturalHusbandry‏ @APhilosophae 8 Nov 2020

        Around 3am Wisconsin time, a fresh batch of 169k new absentee ballots arrived. They were supposed to stop accepting new ballots, but eh, whatever I guess.

        73 replies 1,067 retweets 3,816 likes
        Show this thread
      26. CulturalHusbandry‏ @APhilosophae 8 Nov 2020

        By 4am the D to R ratio was all thrown out of whack. That is because these ballots were not sampled from the real Wisconsin voter population, and they were not randomized in the mail sorting system with the other ballots. They inherently have a different D to R signature...

        23 replies 733 retweets 2,941 likes
        Show this thread
      27. CulturalHusbandry‏ @APhilosophae 8 Nov 2020

        than the rest of the ballots quite possibly bc additional ballots were added to the batch, either through backdating or ballot manufacturing or software tampering. This of this being kind of analogous to carbon-14 dating, but for ballot batch authenticity.

        40 replies 527 retweets 2,371 likes
        Show this thread
      28. CulturalHusbandry‏ @APhilosophae 8 Nov 2020

        lets look at another anomaly:pic.twitter.com/L9cCqJ9mKB

        18 replies 329 retweets 1,528 likes
        Show this thread
      29. CulturalHusbandry‏ @APhilosophae 8 Nov 2020

        Here is Pennsylvania's vote counting history. For the first part of the vote counting process, we see the same pattern for mail-in ballots that we've seen in every other state in the country, which is relatively stable D to R ratio that gradually drifts R as more ballots...

        13 replies 258 retweets 1,438 likes
        Show this thread
      30. CulturalHusbandry‏ @APhilosophae 8 Nov 2020

        come in from rural outlying areas. But then as counting continues, the D to R ratio in mail-in ballots inexplicably begin "increasing". Again, this should not happen, and it is observed almost nowhere else in the country, because all of the ballots are randomly shuffled...

        17 replies 346 retweets 1,804 likes
        Show this thread
      31. CulturalHusbandry‏ @APhilosophae 8 Nov 2020

        in the mail system and should be homogeneous during counting. The only exceptions to this are other suspect states that also have anomalies. Again, this is evidence of ballot backdating, manufacturing of software tampering.

        43 replies 364 retweets 1,944 likes
        Show this thread
      32. Show replies

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