If I have a quibble, it's that while this is the most likely narrative, its validity is impossible for us to judge from this distance.
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I don't even know what has happened. I am looking for feedback
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I'm saying, I don't think it's possible for us to know what actually happened. The narrative you've suggested seems likely, but unfalsifiable (from our vantage as outside onlookers).
End of conversation
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