Great thread. Not a perfect analogy at all, but cigarette smoking rate didn't go down because of a ban on tobacco. It was public education, lawsuits, reduction in places it was OK to smoke, & a slow, steady erosion of societal acceptance of the practice. Mostly public education.
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Speaking pragmatically, bans on peds transition in a few red states (just like there are near-bans on abortions in those states) won't stop the practice, any more than bans have stopped abortions. There is growing awareness of the problems w/child transition, but ...
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