I don't think "the data don't matter" correctly captures my opinion. With the data saying 1/3 vs 2/3 will persist vs desist, the data say we should be prepared for EITHER outcome. The science supports NEITHER extreme. Moderate is the new radical.
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The people who still want to transition by age 16 are much more likely to continue to want to. Most desisters have already desisted by that age.
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This assertion is assuming early-onset of gender dysphoria? As opposed to the recently recognized group of mostly teen girls who evidence no dysphoria (though perhaps gender nonconformity) in earlier childhood? Certainly we are seeing desisters in the latter group.
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Replying to @4th_WaveNow @JamesCantorPhD and
But the landscape of early onset has changed. Children are being socially transitioned at 5 and told by their parents that they are Trans, and will be put on puberty blockers at 11 and transformed into girls and boys thru hormones and surgeries at 15. No real chance to desist.
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Has certainly been mentioned by clinician-researchers in both Amsterdam & Toronto that "affirmation" and social transition could be causative factors for persistence. Has not been systematically studied. So the "old" desistance rates may very well change due to iatrogenic factors
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