Skip to content
By using Twitter’s services you agree to our Cookies Use. We and our partners operate globally and use cookies, including for analytics, personalisation, and ads.
  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • About

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?
    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
39Magilla's profile
Magilla Gorilla 39
Magilla Gorilla 39
Magilla Gorilla 39
@39Magilla

Tweets

Magilla Gorilla 39

@39Magilla

I temporarily live at Mr. Peeble's Pet Shop, but I am hoping to get a permanent home soon. I'm a focused gorilla detective. Tick, Tock Manitowoc. Tick, Tock.

Mr. Peeble's Pet Shop
reddit.com/user/magilla39…
Joined February 2020

Tweets

  • © 2021 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list

    Under 100 characters, optional
    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    1. Magilla Gorilla 39‏ @39Magilla 26 May 2020
      Replying to @someguymg

      The CDC dataset provides 'All Deaths' and 'Deaths by Natural Causes', which allows me to calculate 'Deaths Not By Natural Causes'. The CDC only provide basic analysis of the datasets, however, the data is provided by State and for the nation as a whole... https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Counts-of-Deaths-by-State-and-Select-Causes/muzy-jte6 …

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    2. Magilla Gorilla 39‏ @39Magilla 26 May 2020
      Replying to @39Magilla @someguymg

      This older CDC NCHS dataset provides the 2014-2018 data. The 'Cause of Death' schema for the newer dataset is shown below. https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Counts-of-Deaths-by-State-and-Select-Causes/3yf8-kanr …pic.twitter.com/VHCryydbBT

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Magilla Gorilla 39‏ @39Magilla 26 May 2020
      Replying to @39Magilla @someguymg

      The only extrapolation that I make is for weeks that the CDC has not reported on yet. The 5/20 update only includes data thru 5/9, and the last three weeks are provisional and do change substantially in later updates.pic.twitter.com/NM3sPCED9w

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Magilla Gorilla 39‏ @39Magilla 26 May 2020
      Replying to @39Magilla @someguymg

      I extrapolate using two different assumptions: (1) Constant Delta Assumption: I assume that the difference between the Excess Deaths and the Confirmed Deaths remains constant at its maximum value observed during prior weeks. This is a conservative assumption.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Magilla Gorilla 39‏ @39Magilla 26 May 2020
      Replying to @39Magilla @someguymg

      (2) Constant Ratio Assumption: I assume that the Excess Deaths will remain the same percent greater than the Confirmed Deaths for future weeks. This is a less conservative assumption.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Magilla Gorilla 39‏ @39Magilla 26 May 2020
      Replying to @39Magilla @someguymg

      (3) For this Chart, I only plotted the "Constant Delta" extrapolation (dashed line), which is more conservative. All of the other data on the plot is as reported by the indicated organization.pic.twitter.com/bq9M5eG4uK

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Magilla Gorilla 39‏ @39Magilla 26 May 2020
      Replying to @39Magilla @someguymg

      (4) This 5/20 estimate of US Total CoVID-19 Deaths is still biased downward, because the CDC included "Deaths Not By Natural Causes" in their analysis. This may add 10,000-20,000 additional deaths.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Magilla Gorilla 39‏ @39Magilla 26 May 2020
      Replying to @39Magilla @someguymg

      (5) The CDC Excess Deaths dataset was updated on 5/20 and provided data thru 5/9. The only extrapolation I made was in the last two rows of the table.pic.twitter.com/nPY3vOWsBO

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Magilla Gorilla 39‏ @39Magilla 26 May 2020
      Replying to @39Magilla @someguymg

      (6) These two tables show direct results from the "CDC Excess Deaths" dataset as of 5/20 thru 5/9. I only create calculated columns directly from their data. Source Link: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm …pic.twitter.com/PVJlpsvZ0t

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Magilla Gorilla 39‏ @39Magilla 26 May 2020
      Replying to @39Magilla @someguymg

      (7) People of the US need to know their death counts are > 1.7X higher in more than 25 states. I believe the low reports were originally an organic result of natural progressions in misattribution, but their continued use after knowledge of their errors is willful.pic.twitter.com/HlBhSUSyLS

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Magilla Gorilla 39‏ @39Magilla 26 May 2020
      Replying to @39Magilla @someguymg

      (7) Some Key Southern and Southwest States as of 5/9 (17 days ago): Arizona: 1,328 v. 532 Florida: 2,212 v. 1,715 Mississippi: 924 v. 421 South Carolina: 1,220 v. 330 Texas: 3,716 v. 1,066 This still doesn't account for the "Deaths Not By Natural Causes" effect.

      6:00 AM - 26 May 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        1. Magilla Gorilla 39‏ @39Magilla 26 May 2020
          Replying to @39Magilla @someguymg

          (8) Using these CDC Numbers, I project the following for 5/25:pic.twitter.com/qLp2F3y2To

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        2. Magilla Gorilla 39‏ @39Magilla 26 May 2020
          Replying to @39Magilla @someguymg

          (9) So Texas has 4,000 to 5,000 deaths and is reporting 1,500. This may have been an organic mistake of misattribution, but it's impossible to get the true death count out now due to first impressions and political suppression. Should Texans care?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Show replies

      Loading seems to be taking a while.

      Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

        Promoted Tweet

        false

        • © 2021 Twitter
        • About
        • Help Center
        • Terms
        • Privacy policy
        • Cookies
        • Ads info