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39Magilla's profile
Magilla Gorilla 39
Magilla Gorilla 39
Magilla Gorilla 39
@39Magilla

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Magilla Gorilla 39

@39Magilla

I temporarily live at Mr. Peeble's Pet Shop, but I am hoping to get a permanent home soon. I'm a focused gorilla detective. Tick, Tock Manitowoc. Tick, Tock.

Mr. Peeble's Pet Shop
reddit.com/user/magilla39…
Joined February 2020

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    1. Magilla Gorilla 39‏ @39Magilla 25 May 2020
      Replying to @39Magilla @someguymg

      I haven't looked up the % deaths in that category nationally, but for Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), the data is shown below. I would expect traffic accidents to be down and homicides, but suicides and overdoses may not be.pic.twitter.com/bR9YiS5obe

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. Some Guy‏ @someguymg 25 May 2020
      Replying to @39Magilla

      Does the CDC break out this data or are you extrapolating from states that do?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Magilla Gorilla 39‏ @39Magilla 26 May 2020
      Replying to @someguymg

      The CDC dataset provides 'All Deaths' and 'Deaths by Natural Causes', which allows me to calculate 'Deaths Not By Natural Causes'. The CDC only provide basic analysis of the datasets, however, the data is provided by State and for the nation as a whole... https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Counts-of-Deaths-by-State-and-Select-Causes/muzy-jte6 …

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Magilla Gorilla 39‏ @39Magilla 26 May 2020
      Replying to @39Magilla @someguymg

      This older CDC NCHS dataset provides the 2014-2018 data. The 'Cause of Death' schema for the newer dataset is shown below. https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Counts-of-Deaths-by-State-and-Select-Causes/3yf8-kanr …pic.twitter.com/VHCryydbBT

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Magilla Gorilla 39‏ @39Magilla 26 May 2020
      Replying to @39Magilla @someguymg

      The only extrapolation that I make is for weeks that the CDC has not reported on yet. The 5/20 update only includes data thru 5/9, and the last three weeks are provisional and do change substantially in later updates.pic.twitter.com/NM3sPCED9w

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Magilla Gorilla 39‏ @39Magilla 26 May 2020
      Replying to @39Magilla @someguymg

      I extrapolate using two different assumptions: (1) Constant Delta Assumption: I assume that the difference between the Excess Deaths and the Confirmed Deaths remains constant at its maximum value observed during prior weeks. This is a conservative assumption.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Magilla Gorilla 39‏ @39Magilla 26 May 2020
      Replying to @39Magilla @someguymg

      (2) Constant Ratio Assumption: I assume that the Excess Deaths will remain the same percent greater than the Confirmed Deaths for future weeks. This is a less conservative assumption.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Magilla Gorilla 39‏ @39Magilla 26 May 2020
      Replying to @39Magilla @someguymg

      (3) For this Chart, I only plotted the "Constant Delta" extrapolation (dashed line), which is more conservative. All of the other data on the plot is as reported by the indicated organization.pic.twitter.com/bq9M5eG4uK

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Magilla Gorilla 39‏ @39Magilla 26 May 2020
      Replying to @39Magilla @someguymg

      (4) This 5/20 estimate of US Total CoVID-19 Deaths is still biased downward, because the CDC included "Deaths Not By Natural Causes" in their analysis. This may add 10,000-20,000 additional deaths.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Magilla Gorilla 39‏ @39Magilla 26 May 2020
      Replying to @39Magilla @someguymg

      (5) The CDC Excess Deaths dataset was updated on 5/20 and provided data thru 5/9. The only extrapolation I made was in the last two rows of the table.pic.twitter.com/nPY3vOWsBO

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Magilla Gorilla 39‏ @39Magilla 26 May 2020
      Replying to @39Magilla @someguymg

      (6) These two tables show direct results from the "CDC Excess Deaths" dataset as of 5/20 thru 5/9. I only create calculated columns directly from their data. Source Link: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm …pic.twitter.com/PVJlpsvZ0t

      5:42 AM - 26 May 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        1. Magilla Gorilla 39‏ @39Magilla 26 May 2020
          Replying to @39Magilla @someguymg

          (7) People of the US need to know their death counts are > 1.7X higher in more than 25 states. I believe the low reports were originally an organic result of natural progressions in misattribution, but their continued use after knowledge of their errors is willful.pic.twitter.com/HlBhSUSyLS

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        2. Magilla Gorilla 39‏ @39Magilla 26 May 2020
          Replying to @39Magilla @someguymg

          (7) Some Key Southern and Southwest States as of 5/9 (17 days ago): Arizona: 1,328 v. 532 Florida: 2,212 v. 1,715 Mississippi: 924 v. 421 South Carolina: 1,220 v. 330 Texas: 3,716 v. 1,066 This still doesn't account for the "Deaths Not By Natural Causes" effect.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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