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(2) Looking at the Mississippi Model
The @IHME_UW Composite Mobility index shows Mississippi was among the least responsive to the #COVID19 Outbreak.
The late Shelter-in-Place order issued in Early April was allowed to expire on April 27th, despite rising Case rates.pic.twitter.com/jrYANI2ID1
(3) The Per capita (left) and Hot Spot (right) maps show us that Mississippi has had its share of problem areas.pic.twitter.com/kv9MTGVNog
(4) Mississippi never fully locked down, and they never reached a clear apex. Confirmed Cases perhaps tripled during the lockdown period as the growth rate only slowed. Overall grade: Fpic.twitter.com/iu9tVpvnBO
(5) Mississippi has not ramped up testing like most states. Daily Positives are clearly on the rise. Recent Hospitalizations seemed to decline, but are turning back up. Daily Deaths continue to be on the rise.pic.twitter.com/QdIv6ePFhV
(6) Mississippi Deaths Badly Underreported. Reported Deaths fall below CDC Excess Deaths Lower Estimate (Outside of the 95% CI based on prior years). Best Estimate of current deaths of 1,135 almost twice the attributed deaths of 570. https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Excess-Deaths-Associated-with-COVID-19/xkkf-xrst …pic.twitter.com/vNhCSMraa4
(7) Higher Mississippi Deaths consistent with findings for the United States Overallpic.twitter.com/FGkWdJ1d7c
(8) Several States are not far behind Mississippi on the R value Dashboard. I don't have time to address them all, but they didn't get here by accident.pic.twitter.com/LL8AApUvX6
(9) Credits & References
@CDCgov
@IHME_UW
@nytimes
@PeterJ_Walker
@youyanggu
https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Excess-Deaths-Associated-with-COVID-19/xkkf-xrst …
(10) PS: New York and Montana provide good examples of a successful lockdown. The goal is to bend the curve, go past the apex and create a stable downward trend, reducing infections in the area substantially.pic.twitter.com/OjSlkjFybA
Where can one find this table updated periodically?
The latest projection using the @youyanggu team model can be found here:
https://github.com/youyanggu/covid19_projections/blob/master/projections/combined/latest_us.csv …
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