Notice the assumption here: "If we fuck with prices enough we can force people to travel at times that are inconvenient for their itineraries." Two questions: 1: can we? do countries like the UK *not* experience peak crowding? 2: do we want to? I prefer crowds to price gouging
Didn't you JUST say you can't fit any more trains or lengthen them in some parts of the network? Japan doesn't have some mystical fixed level of investment: they invest where there is need for expansion, that's all. UK should do the same: invest where capacity is falling short!
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But who's going to pay for it? Japan has the density and public transport use to pay for it from fares. The UK does not.
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The UK has a near 10% passenger rail mode share even when you exclude subways and trams; over 3 billion passengers carried on intercity and Tube lines in 2015... ...I think misallocation of revenue might be a bigger issue than lack of revenue.
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Moreover, Odakyu's capacity improvement project was partially funded by government loans. Odakyu, as a profitable company, is able to REPAY those loans with its reliable fare revenue, and to cover all of its regular operations--but the state still steps in where necessary.
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One thing is for sure, though: it will be very difficult for UK railways to ever be profitable if they do everything in their power to prevent high use of railways at times of high demand!
End of conversation
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