Recently I tweeted about the Aichi Loop Line, a profitable railway in Japan, and estimated a profitability threshold of 2500 riders per mile
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Replying to @380kmh
Any such threshold is not set in stone, and depends on how expensive the line's operation and upkeep is (ie, subways cost more than surface)
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Replying to @380kmh
With that in mind, take a look at actual thresholds that JR Hokkaido uses in evaluating its network: http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/11/19/business/jr-hokkaido-says-cant-maintain-half-railways/#.WW47tYTyuUn …
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Replying to @380kmh
Fewer than 200 passengers per km (323/mile) = line to be closed 200-2000 per km (323-3226/mile) = line isn't profitable
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Replying to @380kmh
Why won't 2500/mile cut it here? Main reasons are likely severe winter weather + maintenance backlog...but I don't know for sure.
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Replying to @380kmh
Another possibility is all routes in the 200-2000 range fall below 1550/km (2500/mi), and JR Hokkaido has no routes in the 1550-2000 range
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Replying to @380kmh
That would mean the 2000 designation was a more arbitrary cutoff, and not a profit threshold. But it seems like it's just more expensive...
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...to operate a railway at all in Hokkaido's severe weather.
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