Let's take a look at a very successful third-sector (public/private) railway: the Aichi Loop Line near Nagoya
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Kitanomasuzuka only sees 968 daily passengers, despite being right next to a Toyota factorypic.twitter.com/OxxOtNVXNp
Next are Mikawa Kamigo (1,782/day), Ekaku (483/day), Suenohara (2,244/day), and Mikawa Toyota (12,460/day)pic.twitter.com/Ikpg75Ell5
Next are Shin Uwagoromo (1,382), Shin Toyota (13,568), Aikan Umetsubo (1,798), and the charming little station at Shigo (1,300)pic.twitter.com/At5kBD1klD
Onwards to Kaizu (925), Homi (1,290), Sasabara (253), and Yakusa (5,446), where you can transfer to the Linimo maglev heading to Nagoyapic.twitter.com/4KdBnTdHRE
Almost there lads! Next are Yamaguchi (2,005), Setoguchi (3,830), Setoshi (5,960), and Nakamizuno (3,412)...pic.twitter.com/FJmiflXwlE
...before reaching the terminal at Kozoji (10,414) where it meets the Chuo Main Line. So! What does this tell us about ridership needs?pic.twitter.com/dQlMsZsTor
Most stops fell in the 1,000 to 2,000 daily passenger range. A few were smaller, a few larger.
Anchor stations in Toyota City (Mikawa Toyota and Shin Toyota) pulled about 10x what normal stations did, landing in the 10,000+ range.
Transfer stations (Setoshi and Yakusa) cleared 5,000 each--better than normal stations, lower than anchor stations.
23 stops with 79,584 total daily passengers over a distance of 28 miles... appx 3460 passengers per stop appx 2842 passengers per mile
This is a very successful line, so you could probably still turn a profit if those figures were lower...let's say 2500/mile as a target
A target, that is, for mostly above-grade suburban rail (or, as we call it here in the USA, "commuter rail")
The only bit of information I wish I had but don't is the frequency of service...but I'll assume no worse than 30 minute headways.
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