How many riders does a railway need to be profitable? Is this realistic for Boston? Time for #TrainTwitter to investigate!
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So, roughly 1/5 the population of Boston's metro area. Takamatsu is served by two JR Shikoku lines and three Kotoden lines.
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The primary Kotoden line is their namesake Kotohira Line--let's trace it inbound, starting at Kotoden Kotohira Station: 1441 riders per daypic.twitter.com/a8p0FucO8J
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Next is Enai (235/day), Hazama (237/day), Okada (505/day), and Kurikuma (551/day)pic.twitter.com/tGIiGtjEAJ
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Then Hayuka (155), Takinomiya (647, two pics), and Ayagawa (1119, adjacent to an "Aeon" shopping mall)pic.twitter.com/PIfiQ2QRac
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Next is Sue (670), Hatada (274), Kazashigaoka (398), and Okamoto (869)pic.twitter.com/A1mh6vXjX3
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Enza (1472), Ichinomiya (1573), Kukodori (1137), Busshozan (2964)pic.twitter.com/keYN3Na8sU
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Ota (3913), Sanjo (2450), Ritsurin Koen (2740)...pic.twitter.com/J0f5m1uKY8
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...before reaching the Kotoden hub at Kawaramachi (12284/day), where you can transfer to the other two Kotoden lines or shop at their storepic.twitter.com/iYmLpnBj4q
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The line continues past Kawaramachi to Kataharamachi (4886) and Takamatsu Chikko (10824), a scenic terminal next to the city's castlepic.twitter.com/XNi72f71iG
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Kotoden's other lines have roughly the same range in ridership: busy stops hitting 4 digits, quieter stops hitting 3 digits (some just 2!)
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How does this compare with Boston? First, a quick disclaimer: Boston's commuter rail ridership only counts *inbound* boards...
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...since it is assumed that (and scheduled accordingly) most trips are suburb-to-downtown in AM, reverse in PM, instead of two-way all day
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In other words: ridership totals that I present for Boston are lower than what is actually there--but not by very much.
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South Station is the busiest stop--consider it Boston's Kawaramachi--on the commuter rail, with 21,772 daily boardspic.twitter.com/ACeeWwyT2L
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The second busiest--Boston's Takamatsu Chikko--is North Station, with 16,436 daily boardspic.twitter.com/xQwEFwCaB7
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So, Boston's two terminals are much busier than Kotoden's terminals--but the rest of Boston's network is a bit anemic by comparisonpic.twitter.com/W64fVDDyvt
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On balance? Boston's doing pretty well given the prevailing culture, infrequent schedules, and outdated technology
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Addressing these problems--switching from peak-heavy to all-day timetables, replacing locomotives with DMUs, etc--would boost ridership
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Is the demand there? Given the overcrowding on *existing* commuter rail in Boston, I would assume so--people want more service!pic.twitter.com/vjSuTvJS7L
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Is this enough for profitability in Boston? Unfortunately, no--for two crucial reasons, as far as I can tell.
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The first problem for Boston is that its network is much more extensive than Kotoden's, in terms of mileage--more costly to maintain!
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The second problem is that Kotoden is already a private company which owns its track, its stations, other real estate etc...
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...this gives it a flexibility that Boston doesn't have (for now). So--what WOULD be enough to make Boston's commuter rail profitable?
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Remember that we've been comparing Boston to a city 20% of its size. A five-fold increase in ridership is a crucial hurdle here.
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Is that particularly likely? Depends on how commuter rail is improved. Would it be easy? Definitely not.
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But it is definitely possible, given the popularity of the existing system and the degree to which it can be improved.
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Anyway--that wraps it up for this investigation. Stay tuned for investigations of other lines, profitable and subsidized alike...
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...as we explore the boundaries of profitable ridership.
#TrainTwitter
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