Brief outline of rail privatization situation in Japan
#TrainTwitter
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Consequently they cost much more to operate than they generated in revenue. But, the gov felt obligated to maintain them...
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...so long as rail was a thing which the gov was responsible for providing to citizens. To overcome the political barriers involved...
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...in closing down unused lines, the national rail system was broken up and privatized: six regional rail corps & a nationwide freight one
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This next bit is very important for understanding the structure of *long distance, intercity* rail in the modern world:
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The six JR companies are: - between Tokyo and Osaka - boonies beyond Tokyo - boonies beyond Osaka - Kyushu - Shikoku - Hokkaido
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Between Tokyo and Osaka = the first high speed railway in the world, soon to add the first intercity maglev in the world
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The hinterlands of Tokyo and Osaka are where subsequent high speed rail lines were built (Sanyo, Tohoku, Joetsu, Hokuriku)
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Those two city regions--already home of most private rail companies in Japan--are the engines of most intercity travel in Japan too
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So it should come as no surprise that JR East, Central, and West are privatization success stories: profitable and publicly traded
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JR East and West, which manage some urban commuter lines in Tokyo & Osaka respectively, are doing the best--JR Central...
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...also has a few around Nagoya, but is more focused on its high speed rail line, moving people THRU its turf instead of AROUND in it.
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Consequently, tho profitable, it's not doing as well as East and West. Travel between Osaka and Tokyo is dwarfed by travel within them.
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So, how about the other three? Kyushu, Shikoku, Hokkaido? Of the three, Kyushu is doing best, Hokkaido worst.
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Kyushu is the most urbanized of these three islands, esp around Fukuoka, and the Kyushu Shinkansen acts as an extension of the Sanyo...
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...but most of the island is rural and getting more so every day. Even after closing the emptiest lines after privatization...
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...the same depopulation trends have nudged other lines into the red. More lines will probably close in the future.
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Hokkaido is in much worse shape. High speed rail just barely reached the island in 2016, connecting it to Tokyo...
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...and the only major city, Sapporo, doesn't act as an anchor for a larger metro region the way Fukuoka does in Kyushu.
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Hokkaido closed many lines after privatization, has closed more since then, and will prob still need to shut down half of remaining lines
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Shikoku is an odd case: the tiny island is like a microcosm of Japan itself. Two cities, Takamatsu and Matsuyama, in east and west...
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...each is home to a private rail company that serves the commuter market (Kotoden and Iyotetsu, respectively)
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Intercity travel between these cities--and between either of them and the mainland at Okayama--is the core of JR Shikoku's market.
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So, most of JR Shikoku is in bad shape--rural lines in ever-emptier towns, intercity service between small cities. But...
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...the existing private railways in Takamatsu and Matsuyama seem to be in good shape.
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This suggests that privatization of gov lines in Shikoku was a bit of a moot point, since the most viable markets were already accounted for
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Which brings me to my conclusion & expectations for the future of rail travel.
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Rail networks are based around specific cities. Rural lines are most viable as part of an urban hinterland (= close, but too far to commute)
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High speed rail dramatically extends range of a city's hinterland, putting rural lines much "closer" to the city which drives the network.
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The future of rail travel = conventional urban rail + high speed lines to other cities/hinterland + autonomous cars solving last mile
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The future of rail = further development of station-as-economic-hub. AVs will use stations as natural hubs/waiting areas.
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