The central premise of his book is that population density is not the sole factor impacting transit ridership--"Density Is Not Destiny"
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Next topic--land use and population density. Mees quotes "Building the 21st Century Home," a widely-used guidebook...
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"We may lament the decline in public transport...it must be recognized that reduction of housing densities has played its part..."
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"...densities of 100 persons per hectare are required to support a viable bus service and around 240 persons per hectare for a tram service"
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Sounds reasonable--except that by this metric no city in Europe should have trams, except Paris (with its 250 residents per hectare).
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To counter the density argument, Mees considers the efforts of the Toronto Transit Commission (TTC) between the 1960s and 1980s
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Toronto has a small subway system; abt 15-20% of its residents live in walking distance of a station. But the remainder also use it...
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...because Toronto's bus network is *functionally* an extension of the subway. Feeder buses and trams timed to connect with subway trains.
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Melbourne, despite having a far more extensive rail system than Toronto, has lower per-capita use because it ignores network principles.
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Only 10% of Melbourne's train passengers get to the station by bus, vs 76% in Toronto. 69% walk to the station in Melbourne, 20% in Toronto.
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If Toronto only bothered w passengers who could walk to the station, it wouldn't have enough ridership to justify running trains every 5 min
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...seven days a week, as late as 1:45 AM. By synchronizing buses with trains, it dramatically increases catchment areas for each station.
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This is a two-way synergy--the buses made themselves *more useful* too by syncing w subway. This allowed for frequent bus service all year.
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Running every 10 minutes or better all day, with cross-city and radial routes, Toronto stands out for *bus to bus* transfers too!
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Last major point--on transit ridership and urban form in Switzerland.
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Mees mentions Switzerland throughout his book, but begins by looking at Sternenberg, a rural municipality near Zurich, population 349.
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Most people in Sternenberg live in farms, or tiny hamlets of 3-4 dwellings. The village center is a few houses around an old church.
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In the USA, Sternenberg would have no public transport at all. But instead, it has 7 buses every weekday, 5 on weekends (7 in the summer).
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19% of workers in Sternenberg use transit; 10% walk or bike, the rest drive. That's better mode share than ANY American city except NYC!!
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What gives? Density can't explain it, and even frequency is too low. Something else is going on here...
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Every bus serving Sternenberg goes to Bauma (pop 1000), the nearest town w a train station, just in time for riders to connect to the train.
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That train, in turn, connects to the regional hub at Winterthur, just in time for connections to Zurich, the airport, and other centers...
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This synchronization works in reverse, too--ride a train from Zurich to Winterthur, you'll be in time to connect to Bauma, then Sternenberg.
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This is the NETWORK EFFECT. This is how public transit works with itself to be useful *anywhere* it goes, no matter how rural.
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I mentioned that Mees does not discuss Japan--does Japan use this network effect, too? Sort of...
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Mees sought to show that density is not the final arbiter of transit's usefulness. But it *does* still play a role, which he acknowledges.
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Density is a big factor in determining frequency--note the low frequency in Sternenberg. In Japanese cities, density is usually a given...
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...so there's no difficulty in justifying high frequency service. Where frequency is high enough, timed connections become moot...
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...bc the waiting times are so low that there's always a connection in a minute or two. In rural areas, Japan times its connections though.
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But for places like Massachusetts? Density isn't going to justify service in most places unless the network is INTEGRATED like the Swiss one
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All other factors aside, service frequency--aka, how long do I have to wait?--is the main driver of transit ridership.
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