Ari Gesher
@jstogdill @2045singularity now is the time to invoke Poe’s Law. http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/PoesLaw …
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@alephbass@jstogdill never had Poe's Law invoked in my 4yrs of blogging. 1st time for everything. Seems like a#Catch22#CosmicTeapot law. -
@2045singularity@jstogdill singularity and the tech it entails is a discontinuity and very difficult to plan past or argue with; -
@alephbass@2045singularity But with or w/o a singularity, the future has always been difficult to predict. :) -
@jstogdill@alephbass we have much more evidence now thus predictions can be accurate. Look at cost of mobiles 1986-2014, $3.7K versus $8. -
@jstogdill@alephbass hard drives show similar increase in performance and decrease in costs. Moore's Law has been accurate. -
@2045singularity@jstogdill yes, yes - do you think we’re not aware of this? Predicting the when and what of AGI is still fraught. -
@alephbass@jstogdill even if we didn't invent AGI and current tech is merely refined, similar to technology history, this would be enough. -
@2045singularity@jstogdill without AGI to take control of the world, politics are a very confounding factor. Who loses and are they armed? -
@alephbass@jstogdill politics is scarcity-regulation, tech will erode scarcity w/o AGI, we will see more Swiss#basicincome, less conflict. -
@2045singularity@alephbass Are you familiar with the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics. It's compelling. -
@jstogdill@alephbass but locally it doesn't need to apply thus humans have progressed, we are mastering matter, order increases locally. -
@2045singularity@jstogdill there are limits and they are fundamental. See CPU speed slowdown due to quantum-level effects. -
@alephbass@jstogdill many previously predicted approach of limits, but we found ways to increase. Anyway, 30 years at 2014-level = utopia. -
@alephbass@jstogdill think about how much better 2014 tech is than 30 years ago.30 years of invention with 2014 tech would be sufficient. -
@2045singularity@jstogdill not really much better, actually. Different? Yes, certainly. Better? No. More productive and profitable, sure. -
@alephbass@jstogdill wonder how you'd mange loading Twitter and Tweeting on phone in 1984? Desktops are better too. http://www.extremetech.com/computing/175289-the-macintosh-is-30-years-old-today-how-apple-changed-the-desktop-computing-world … -
@2045singularity@jstogdill tech has improved. Effect on the world for the better is not as clear.
Singularity Utopia
Jim Stogdill
@alephbass @jstogdill times are changing (WikiLeaks-Snowden, power-shift). Ease of communication ($8 phone, cheap inherent access) is good.
12:06 PM - 9 Feb 2014
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@alephbass@jstogdill we do however have way to go before tech-positivity is really felt. We're in transition, future can appear unclear.