...under this ‘best-case’ scenario, the estimated outbreak size in Iran was smaller but still substantial (1820, 95% CI: 380-5320 cases) 2/2
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UPDATE:
Iran reported 139 cases in total, but it's likely the total is at least 1820 (95% CI) 
We also evaluated a scenario where we assumed perfect case detection in travelers from Iran, such that
disease is truly absent in countries not reporting cases...
1/2https://twitter.com/2019nCoVwatcher/status/1232612012045275136 …
IRAN STUDY
:
We estimated that 18,300 (95% confidence interval: 3770 to 53,470) COVID-19 cases would have had to occur in Iran, assuming an outbreak duration of 1.5 months in the country...
1/n
:
We estimated that 18,300 (95% confidence interval: 3770 to 53,470) COVID-19 cases would have had to occur in Iran, assuming an outbreak duration of 1.5 months in the country...
1/n
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