IRAN STUDY
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We estimated that 18,300 (95% confidence interval: 3770 to 53,470) COVID-19 cases would have had to occur in Iran, assuming an outbreak duration of 1.5 months in the country...
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...in order to observe these three internationally exported cases reported at the time of writing.
It is likely that Iran is currently experiencing a COVID-19 epidemic of significant size for such exportations to be occurring.
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https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.24.20027375v1 …
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