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Prikvačeni tweet
My first Medium article! Combining all my tweets about modeling bitcoin's value with stock-to-flow, the halving, power laws, fractals and questions & answers to one logical story.https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25 …
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#bitcoin
halving 3 months to go .. now above S2F model valuepic.twitter.com/v8Hhh1ot55
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Hypothesis:
#bitcoin
keeps rising as long as FED, ECB and PBOC keep printing.https://twitter.com/YuanTalks/status/1223864963854295040 …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
In 3 months we will have a second S2F50+ asset. Very interesting how markets will value it
pic.twitter.com/GtzYrnPPYh
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Bitcoin’s “halvening” won’t boost its price. Or will the cointegration between bitcoin price and stock to flow stay intact and boost btc price?
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PlanB proslijedio/la je Tweet
Sharpe ratio does not work for Bitcoin.
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#Bitcoin
is the only asset with a "Sharpe ratio" > 1 (return>risk)! Classic asset (stocks, bonds, gold) risk & return basically flat. Even FAANG (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google) .. not even close to btc. Note I skipped bitcoin's first years (2009-2012) and updated data.pic.twitter.com/K2XutIVu10
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After 2012 and 2016
#bitcoin
halving there was no death spiral or miner capitulation (of course). Network difficulty / hashrate did 10-100x 2yrs before those halvings, and 10-100x 2yrs after halvings. So far 2020 difficulty path tracks 2016 perfectly.pic.twitter.com/FTp5nWtGPc
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IMO
#bitcoin
risk is OVERestimated, and risk of current financial system collapsing is UNDERestimated
https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/efficient-market-hypothesis-and-bitcoin-stock-to-flow-model-db17f40e6107 …pic.twitter.com/ToHxCQIEWL
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AMAZON added to the risk & return chart. Risk (worst year return, 2000) = 15/76-1 = -80%. Return (1998-2019, geometric) = (1850/5)^(1/22)-1 = 31%. Much closer to the "normal" EMH / CAPM line. Bitcoin (orange) is a different beast!
https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/efficient-market-hypothesis-and-bitcoin-stock-to-flow-model-db17f40e6107 …pic.twitter.com/nH25blceSm
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+6% difficulty adjustment next Tuesday
https://diff.cryptothis.com/ pic.twitter.com/J4zGAQa9Vw
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PlanB proslijedio/la je Tweet
In Audio!
@100trillionUSD's recent piece: -----
The Efficient Market Hypothesis & #Bitcoin
's Stock to Flow
-----
"I think the simple answer is that the market currently overestimates future risk, like it overestimated risk the last 11 years." 
https://anchor.fm/thecryptoconomy/episodes/CryptoQuikRead_344---Efficient-Markets--Bitcoins-Stock-to-Flow-PlanB-eaco0i …Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
... Almost 50% is uncertain about a death spiral or miner capitulation after May 2020 #bitcoin
halving. Those are the people / risks that stand between current $8300 btc price and $50-100k S2F model value after the halving. If this risk disappears ..
https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/efficient-market-hypothesis-and-bitcoin-stock-to-flow-model-db17f40e6107 …pic.twitter.com/lZVpdsrwo4
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#bitcoin
risk & return (-74% & 206%) is off the chart!
Looking at 50 years price data: bonds, gold and stocks are on the same risk & return line, consistent with EMH and CAPM. But bitcoin is far above that line. IMO that is the reason why the market overestimated bitcoin risk.pic.twitter.com/8WLCrRllij
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Do you think May 2020
#bitcoin
halving of miner reward will cause a mining death spiral or miner capitulation?Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
PDF version of both articles (S2F and EMH & S2F) are available on my github: https://github.com/100trillionUSD/bitcoin …pic.twitter.com/ryzXyR10hW
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PlanB proslijedio/la je TweetHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
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PlanB proslijedio/la je Tweet
Another very important paper by
@100trillionUSD. His conclusion is that the efficient market hypothesis is valid for BTC, but that the market overestimates risk and that therefore BTC will still go up a lot more than has been priced in. Great read once again!#BuyBitcoin#bullishhttps://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1218270794540814336 …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Bitcoin risk & return last 11 years was better than EMH/non arbitrage/CAPM expectation based on 50 yrs bond, gold, stocks data. What do you think? Not enough data? Market overestimates risk (btc dies, govt ban etc)? Taleb's turkey (tail risk / fat tails)? https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD100trillionUSD/efficient-market-hypothesis-and-bitcoin-stock-to-flow-model-db17f40e6107 …pic.twitter.com/u6Dv3kh70F
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cointegration