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Conversation

David Manheim - bsky:@davidmanheim.alter.org.il

How well calibrated were global catastrophic risk experts on the size of future natural pandemics? From Bostrom and

@anderssandberg

informal 2008 survey, the experts estimated a mean probability of 60% that a natural pandemic would kill 1m people before 2100.

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Eliezer Yudkowsky

I don't know, we could still have a natural pandemic at some point.

5

106

Gotem

8:01 PM · Dec 26, 2021