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mojakus

  1. @marketfolly ...riding the wave of wider recognition of the trade's merits. Doesn't really need to work out for him to mint it...
  2. @marketfolly I just think the short treasury/short USD/long gold trade may or may not work out, but paulson will make $$ by
  3. Goldbugs like J Paulson trade on risk recognition rather than risk realization. he'll be long gone by the time we have clarity
  4. @qzorb unfortunately even if there was a way to short bills (dealers won't because of fees on fails) the PnL is limited because of short dur
  5. 0% TBills not a direct risk signal. Simply MMFs who were running excess liquidity in overnights now putting $$ to work over year-end
  6. assuming a fixed proportion of genius in population, a growing pop, wider education & broader means of distribution, why read the classics??
  7. Huge $9bn re-REMIC of Alt-A and Prime non-agency MBS bank portfolio announced today for regulatory cap reasons shows CDOs are here to stay
  8. Had Niall Ferguson in the other day and got to chat with him - he's backed WAY off the long-end UST blow-out thesis. Krugman wins I guess...
  9. In a fiat currency world, inflation is always and everywhere a FISCAL problem. It's merely framed in monetary terms.
  10. The commercial real estate/CMBS industry is working overtime to reduce skin-in-the-game legislation http://bit.ly/31tqhD
  11. Bear phobias (mine inc) keep shifting - first total financial meltdown, then -tive GDP, then Japan, now jobless recovery. SO Dave Rosenberg
  12. @StockJockey yes remains far easier to play forward curves than spot, what with schizophrenic bank portfolios & foreign CBs on the loose
  13. @StockJockey $TBT looks ok short-term 1-3mths. 20+yrs also most exposed to supply pressure (contra-Krugman). Long-term tho, remember Japan..
  14. I don't think repo plan between Fed & money-market funds is a big deal. MMFs were buying T-bills, now that SFP is gone they'll buy Fed repos
  15. Anybody have suggestions on good 529 plans? Not limited by geography, & interested in plans with industrial-grade investment options/choice
  16. Medley report rumor (apparently false) about two Fed members wanting to hike rates / exit QE next week is whacking USTs
  17. The High Yield CDX index is really ripping. just hit 94 1/4, which is up 1.5pts today. New index roll and unwinding CPDO are drivers.
  18. @felixsalmon too bad the FT article has the wrong focus. 30yr negative swap spreads WAY more due to funding/balance sheet than credit risk
  19. Despite reasonable arguments and sources, it really feels like the CBO paper on baby-boomer demand for assets is flawed http://bit.ly/LjKJD
  20. Ginnie Mae still hasn't corrected their Buy vs. Rent Calculator which only allows positive price appreciation: http://bit.ly/H25zO