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fivethirtyeight

  1. Voinovich (R-OH) did not vote and was apparently not present in the chamber. Don't know if there's any significance to that.
  2. For those of you doing something fun on Sat. night: HC bill clears procedural hurdle in Senate, 60-39.
  3. Will be on Maddow tonight -- 9pm on msnbc.
  4. This is liable to be a really weird election and the more lottery tickets you have, the better.
  5. Not sure how much weight I give to AZ poll showing McCain in primary trouble-- but Dems need 2 have credible candidate ready just in case.
  6. Will be on Countdown tonight to talk Palin and 2012. Most likely in the second half of the show.
  7. Rule of thumb: the closer you stay to the airport, the *more* likely you are to miss your flight. At least if you're me.
  8. FYI, doing a little Vegas/LA/SFO trip for my book project over the next week -- posting schedule will be more West Coast style.
  9. OTOH, it may also matter whether people *think* it's surprising -- regardless of whether it ought have been. Perception is reality, etc.
  10. People are making a mistake to assume the fact that HC only got 220 is surprising.
  11. Say what u want about Pelosi: she is very skilled at squeezing as much out of her caucus as she can.
  12. House passes HC bill 220-215 ... That's really close to the projection of 222 yeas that we made back in August.
  13. There will be even less doubt that Strategic Vision has been publishing fake surveys.
  14. I have a big story coming out tomorrow AM on Strategic Vision and their "poll" of high school students in Oklahoma.
  15. One last stray election night tweet: state of WA now officially says that Ref 71, to expand domestic partner rights, has passed.
  16. NYT calls it for 'Yes' (anti-gay marriage) in ME. Talk of a recount but margin is too wide unless there are widespread irregularities.
  17. CA secretary of state calls CA-10 for Garamendi (D). No real surprise. He leads 56-40 so far.
  18. Better news for equality in WA: Ref. 71 looks likely to pass. Tally is close, but King County (Seattle) is underrepresented so far.
  19. Hoffman has conceded. Everybody will have something to spin tomorrow.
  20. OTOH, looking very tough for gay marriage in Maine. Maybe there are some absentees etc but I don't know that the math is there.