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fivethirtyeight

  1. FYI, doing a little Vegas/LA/SFO trip for my book project over the next week -- posting schedule will be more West Coast style.1:24 PM Nov 10th from txt
  2. OTOH, it may also matter whether people *think* it's surprising -- regardless of whether it ought have been. Perception is reality, etc.4:34 PM Nov 9th from txt
  3. People are making a mistake to assume the fact that HC only got 220 is surprising.4:32 PM Nov 9th from txt
  4. Say what u want about Pelosi: she is very skilled at squeezing as much out of her caucus as she can.8:23 PM Nov 7th from txt
  5. House passes HC bill 220-215 ... That's really close to the projection of 222 yeas that we made back in August.8:21 PM Nov 7th from txt
  6. There will be even less doubt that Strategic Vision has been publishing fake surveys.4:12 PM Nov 7th from txt
  7. I have a big story coming out tomorrow AM on Strategic Vision and their "poll" of high school students in Oklahoma.4:08 PM Nov 7th from txt
  8. One last stray election night tweet: state of WA now officially says that Ref 71, to expand domestic partner rights, has passed.11:16 AM Nov 6th from txt
  9. NYT calls it for 'Yes' (anti-gay marriage) in ME. Talk of a recount but margin is too wide unless there are widespread irregularities.10:12 PM Nov 3rd from txt
  10. CA secretary of state calls CA-10 for Garamendi (D). No real surprise. He leads 56-40 so far.9:27 PM Nov 3rd from txt
  11. Better news for equality in WA: Ref. 71 looks likely to pass. Tally is close, but King County (Seattle) is underrepresented so far.9:22 PM Nov 3rd from txt
  12. Hoffman has conceded. Everybody will have something to spin tomorrow.9:15 PM Nov 3rd from txt
  13. OTOH, looking very tough for gay marriage in Maine. Maybe there are some absentees etc but I don't know that the math is there.8:52 PM Nov 3rd from web
  14. I'm seeing NY-23 the same way that they do. Nothing's for sure, but looking good for Owens. http://tinyurl.com/yg8doou8:50 PM Nov 3rd from web
  15. The very good NY political blog Albany Project has "called" NY23 for Owens.8:23 PM Nov 3rd from txt
  16. Really don't think he needed a third-stringer like Fred Thompson to be cutting commercials for him.8:19 PM Nov 3rd from txt
  17. But a big theme there is that the intensity for Hoffman comes from outside the district.8:18 PM Nov 3rd from txt
  18. Still don't know how NY23 is going to turn out -- it's extremely cumbersome to access the county level results.8:16 PM Nov 3rd from txt
  19. Still think the outstanding vote in Maine looks a little reddish, but it's hard to say without looking at city-level data.8:03 PM Nov 3rd from txt
  20. 'No' keeps hanging in there in Maine, up 2500 votes with 41% reporting.8:01 PM Nov 3rd from txt