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fivethirtyeight

[new article] Economy, and Obama, Mired in Down Data nyti.ms/JEH1Fe about 5 hours ago via twitterfeed
Per capita global GDP did not grow AT ALL between 2000 B.C. and the Industrial Revolution. We're just reverting to the mean! about 8 hours ago via TweetDeck
This jobs report is no big deal. Every economy has a few bad decades. about 8 hours ago via TweetDeck
Only 5 of the 682 Romney vs Obama polls we have in our database also included Gary Johnson as an option. 11:45 AM May 31st via TweetDeck
@jbplainblog: Also depends a lot on how rich the state polling data is. Right now it's getting better but still spotty in places. 7:16 AM May 31st via TweetDeck in reply to jbplainblog
In deep-dive in past polling data. Finding: state polls often tell you more about the national trend than national polls do. 7:07 AM May 31st via TweetDeck
Yes, there's some residual chance that Barrett pulls off the upset. But don't see any reason to distrust the nonpartisan polling in WI. 10:37 AM May 30th via TweetDeck
Dem poll shows WI-recall tied. Nonpartisan poll has Walker up 7. Relevant fact: partisan polls have a 6-point bias on average. 10:29 AM May 30th via TweetDeck
Craig James' campaign video highlighted his performance in Super Bowl XX. Fact check: he had 1 yard on 5 carries. bit.ly/ofLWzH 9:29 AM May 30th via TweetDeck
Craig James, who quit his ESPN job to run for Senate, got just 4% of the vote in the Texas primary. bit.ly/KslLBF 9:24 AM May 30th via TweetDeck
LOESS regression is kind of overrated unless you have an empirical way to determine what the smoothing parameter should be. #nerdtweets 8:45 AM May 30th via TweetDeck
[new article] Economically, Obama Is No Jimmy Carter nyti.ms/KHg7dU 3:13 AM May 30th via twitterfeed
Once, in 2002, I finished a project BEFORE the deadline. 1:34 PM May 29th via TweetDeck
Had to build an economic composite index for our election model. If you're averaging polls, you should average economic data too. 7:33 PM May 28th via web
Romney has also outraised Obama in New Jersey. Polls haven't shown it close so far but demographics are interesting for him. 2:11 PM May 28th via web
States where Romney has raised considerably more money than Obama so far: UT, ID, SD, LA, MS ... and Connecticut. 2:04 PM May 28th via web
Not a good year to rely on just one economic variable for forecasting the election. Data is all over the place, as is the economy. 9:52 AM May 27th via web
Exciting weekend plans: see whether economic numbers help predict elections when you use real-time rather than revised data. 11:02 AM May 25th via web
[new article] Signs of Shift Among African-Americans on Same-Sex Marriage nyti.ms/Kmjt5s 5:44 AM May 25th via twitterfeed
[new article] In Wisconsin, Walker Is Likely to Survive Recall nyti.ms/KHi4pv 12:19 PM May 24th via twitterfeed

Name Nate Silver
Location New York
Web http://fivethirty...
Bio Blogger/writer/columnist/whatever. Stats, sports, politics and food geek. Tweets are unedited and reflect solely my own views.