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ed_hawkins

  1. @charliejrwill Pesky 140 character limit! No time for me either.... but others have done similar analysis I think. 6:51 AM May 31st via web in reply to charliejrwill
  2. @charliejrwill I think resolving tornados is beyond current GCMs unfortunately. Perhaps could look at frequencies of tornado-likely weather. 5:33 AM May 31st via web in reply to charliejrwill
  3. Nice figure! Map of paths of tornados over the U.S. from the past 56 years: geekosystem.com/tornado-histor… 5:01 AM May 31st via web
  4. @flimsin @icey_mark Not sure you need to. Would you publish a suggested relationship with correlation r=0.05, even if it was 'significant'? 4:59 AM May 31st via web in reply to flimsin
  5. @icey_mark @lucialiljegren @SMEasterbrook @etzpcm Excellent! Not sure Science would publish that nowadays! 1:11 AM May 31st via web in reply to icey_mark
  6. @lucialiljegren @SMEasterbrook @etzpcm Not convinced that r=0.05 means very much! This may be relevant to discussion: skepticalscience.com/How-significan… 12:23 AM May 31st via web in reply to lucialiljegren
  7. Near Reading this wkend? If so, @wamfestival of Weather, Art & Music is on, including chance to ask friendly scientists your weather q's! 1:28 AM May 29th via web
  8. @fjpickett I would like to see a skill comparison of everyone's forecasts, but not done. And, the MO do show a 30 day forecast on the web. 12:19 AM May 28th via web in reply to fjpickett
  9. @fjpickett OK - when May is over, check the results for Lowestoft instead (metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/sta…) - can't go much further East than that! 12:14 AM May 28th via web in reply to fjpickett
  10. @sjhopkinson @omnologos Not even good for 1st week of May unfortunately - 20 years in last 100 with colder first week than 2012. 12:44 PM May 27th via web in reply to sjhopkinson
  11. @GarethSJones1 I think it was an 80% chance of coldest May in 100 years. 12:36 PM May 27th via web in reply to GarethSJones1
  12. In fact, I count 27 years in the last 100 which had a colder CET in the first 2 weeks of May than 2012. 12:36 PM May 27th via web
  13. @sjhopkinson @icey_mark @Piers_Corbyn @omnologos And, first 2 weeks of May 2012 was warmer than same in 2010... (provisional CET numbers) 12:29 PM May 27th via web in reply to sjhopkinson
  14. @sjhopkinson @icey_mark @Piers_Corbyn @omnologos Yes, the first half of May was fairly cold, but that was not what was stated in forecast. 12:13 PM May 27th via web in reply to sjhopkinson
  15. And May in the UK is now warmer than average! Not so good for Pier Corbyn's forecast of the "coldest May for 100 years" metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/… 11:54 AM May 27th via web
  16. @leohickman He was, but apparently there was disagreement over the rules of engagement.... don't know much more than that. 9:51 AM May 24th via web in reply to leohickman
  17. @leohickman Agreed. But if forecasts every month available in real-time then we wouldn't necessarily need methods to do skill assessment. 9:35 AM May 24th via web in reply to leohickman
  18. @leohickman Though it is right that forecasts should be put in public domain to be tested. I think he said 80% chance of breaking record? 9:22 AM May 24th via web in reply to leohickman
  19. @leohickman @markpmcc @icey_mark Oops, sorry, typo. 5.5C to break record. 9:04 AM May 24th via web
  20. @leohickman @markpmcc @icey_mark And, a quick calculation suggests we need average T of 7.5C for remainder of May to break 100yr record. 9:03 AM May 24th via web in reply to leohickman
  • Name Ed Hawkins
  • Location Reading, UK
  • Web http://www.met.re...
  • Bio Climate scientist at University of Reading. Especially interested in climate variability, predictability and uncertainty. Editor of @ClimateLabBook blog
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