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SEK_bonds

  1. NB forecast below 4% growth => put additional medium term pressure to hike rates more rapidly (although starting later rather than sooner) 5:40 AM May 30th via TweetDeck
  2. Wage growth expectations are edging higher, exp above 4% in 2012-2013 clearly reflecting strong labor market & high domestic activity 5:38 AM May 30th via TweetDeck
  3. Norges Bank’s survey for Q2 shows that overall inflation exp remained rather stable on 2y-5y and firmly anchored to 2.5% inflation target 5:36 AM May 30th via TweetDeck
  4. Norges Bank's inflation expectation survey released 14 CET - usually not a market mover and shdnt chg outlook for near term monetary policy 4:58 AM May 30th via TweetDeck
  5. Although there is room for Riksbank to stimulate further due to low inflation, resource utilisation.. actual data and indicators remain firm 12:38 AM May 30th via TweetDeck
  6. Market discounted 80% probability for a rate cut in July => short SEK rates rising on back of the strong GDP figure 12:36 AM May 30th via TweetDeck
  7. Riksbank forecasted Q1 GDP at 0.4%, 1.2% y/y => on the margin supports Riksbank's current rate path which indicates no rate cuts 12:36 AM May 30th via TweetDeck
  8. Strong investments and household consumption behind the stronger than expected GDP 12:34 AM May 30th via TweetDeck
  9. Strong Swe GDP; 0.8%, 1.5% y/y vs. consensus 0.2%, 0.9% y/y 12:31 AM May 30th via TweetDeck
  10. GM all! Is Sweden in a new recession? High uncertainty ahead of Q1 GDP figure with risks on both up/downside. Released 9.30 CET - be ready! 11:41 PM May 29th via TweetDeck
  11. Overall, speech signals no change in course for NB => hard to expect NB to turn hawkish until the next rate decision and MPR on Jun 20 3:51 AM May 29th via TweetDeck
  12. Risks from keeping rates too low for long is already reflected in current rate path => clear message from Olsen that INFLATION is key 3:50 AM May 29th via TweetDeck
  13. Norges Bank Olsen on monetary policy: Cont to weigh 1) split growth outlook Norway vs abroad 2) low inflation&strong NOK vs financial risks 3:49 AM May 29th via TweetDeck
  14. Unemployment in Norway peaked Q4 2010 at 3.6% - thanks to high public employment growth. Now, private sector is behind employment growth 1:04 AM May 29th via TweetDeck
  15. Continued strong Norwegian labour market; unemployment declined to 3.0% (from 3.2%) and employment rose 19k 1:03 AM May 29th via TweetDeck
  16. Swedish PPI lower than expected. Also household lending growth is slowing more rapidly than expected (4.8% y/y vs. prev 5.0%) 12:32 AM May 29th via TweetDeck
  17. To be clear, indicators suggest a slowing momentum but at current levels they still imply rising employment and "ok" full year GDP growth 12:29 AM May 29th via TweetDeck
  18. Hence, all tough sentiment indicators rose the underlying figures are a tad weaker and shows a slowing activity in the domestic economy 12:23 AM May 29th via TweetDeck
  19. Drop in employment plans a 1st sign labor market could start weakening after summer (as we expect). ST indicators prev been holding up well 12:22 AM May 29th via TweetDeck
  20. Although business conf stronger, a bit worrisome... (1) marked drop in construction to -17 from -2 (2) employment plans declined to 1 from 8 12:21 AM May 29th via TweetDeck
  • Name Erica Blomgren
  • Location Oslo/Stockholm
  • Web http://www.seb.se...
  • Bio Fixed Income Strategist at SEB covering Scandies (SEK & NOK), Nordic bond markets, macro etc.
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