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DanielRFeldman

  1. @gnoll110 Can you point to historical analogue? When do you predict the sharp correction? Can you provide a range of dates?
  2. @gnoll110 True, but I ask how US-China imbalance finds equilibrium, not about individuals. Gradual rebalancing or sharp correction?
  3. @gnoll110 So how do you think the rebalancing will play out? Gradually or shockingly?
  4. @gnoll110 Ultimately if men are not able to find a sustainable arrangement, Nature will find one for them. Result: failed expectations.
  5. @gnoll110 Ppl don't like seeing expectations crimped, yes. But paraphrasing R. Feynman: ... Nature cannot be fooled.
  6. @gnoll110 Greater consumer spending can bring about positive knock-on effects to the wider economy. http://bit.ly/4RXq7U
  7. @gnoll110 Unless some of these policies are allowed to reverse slightly I do not see how household consumption can be improved.
  8. @gnoll110 Researchers et al within the Chinese government see development of domestic consumption as key to economic recovery.
  9. @gnoll110 Which side will have its expectations crimped in my proposed scenario? Factions on both sides see status quo as disruptive.
  10. @gnoll110 Do you see this working smoothly in principle?
  11. @gnoll110 US must reduce deficit WHILE China reverses policies, moving wealth from state sector to private sector.
  12. @gnoll110 A sustainable global economy requires redressing these imbalances.
  13. @gnoll110 Current scenario unsustainable. US/EU issues arise from CN's internal/external economic imbalances.
  14. @gnoll110 I don't understand your reference to #gfc and #globalwarming. What is the connection to these aforementioned policies?
  15. @gnoll110 Huang Yasheng says that CN should grow household income/consumption first (via policy reversal), then later float yuan.
  16. @gnoll110 Reversing the policies would help to build a middle class and would increase household incomes and hence consumption.
  17. @gnoll110 Reversing the policies as Huang Yasheng and Michael Pettis suggest would help to balance China internally.
  18. @gnoll110 I'm not sure that China needs to continue all the policies. These policies can hurt China too.
  19. @gnoll110 Therefore, yes, US/EU forced to take 'next best option', protectionism, if they feel policies are problematic and unfair.
  20. @gnoll110 US/EU criticism hardens China's policy stance. CN sees policies, incl. fixed yuan, as required for political stability.