DanielRFeldman
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@ Can you point to historical analogue? When do you predict the sharp correction? Can you provide a range of dates?
5:19 AM Dec 1st
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in reply to gnoll110
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@ True, but I ask how US-China imbalance finds equilibrium, not about individuals. Gradual rebalancing or sharp correction?
5:06 AM Dec 1st
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in reply to gnoll110
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@ So how do you think the rebalancing will play out? Gradually or shockingly?
4:50 AM Dec 1st
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in reply to gnoll110
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@ Ultimately if men are not able to find a sustainable arrangement, Nature will find one for them. Result: failed expectations.
4:17 AM Dec 1st
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in reply to gnoll110
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@ Ppl don't like seeing expectations crimped, yes. But paraphrasing R. Feynman: ... Nature cannot be fooled.
4:15 AM Dec 1st
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in reply to gnoll110
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@ Greater consumer spending can bring about positive knock-on effects to the wider economy.
4:12 AM Dec 1st
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in reply to gnoll110
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@ Unless some of these policies are allowed to reverse slightly I do not see how household consumption can be improved.
4:06 AM Dec 1st
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in reply to gnoll110
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@ Researchers et al within the Chinese government see development of domestic consumption as key to economic recovery.
4:05 AM Dec 1st
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in reply to gnoll110
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@ Which side will have its expectations crimped in my proposed scenario? Factions on both sides see status quo as disruptive.
4:04 AM Dec 1st
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in reply to gnoll110
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@ Do you see this working smoothly in principle?
3:59 AM Dec 1st
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in reply to gnoll110
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@ US must reduce deficit WHILE China reverses policies, moving wealth from state sector to private sector.
3:58 AM Dec 1st
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in reply to gnoll110
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@ A sustainable global economy requires redressing these imbalances.
3:57 AM Dec 1st
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in reply to gnoll110
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@ Current scenario unsustainable. US/EU issues arise from CN's internal/external economic imbalances.
3:55 AM Dec 1st
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in reply to gnoll110
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@ I don't understand your reference to and . What is the connection to these aforementioned policies?
3:46 AM Dec 1st
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in reply to gnoll110
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@ Huang Yasheng says that CN should grow household income/consumption first (via policy reversal), then later float yuan.
3:45 AM Dec 1st
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in reply to gnoll110
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@ Reversing the policies would help to build a middle class and would increase household incomes and hence consumption.
3:41 AM Dec 1st
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in reply to gnoll110
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@ Reversing the policies as Huang Yasheng and Michael Pettis suggest would help to balance China internally.
3:40 AM Dec 1st
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in reply to gnoll110
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@ I'm not sure that China needs to continue all the policies. These policies can hurt China too.
3:40 AM Dec 1st
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in reply to gnoll110
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@ Therefore, yes, US/EU forced to take 'next best option', protectionism, if they feel policies are problematic and unfair.
3:35 AM Dec 1st
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in reply to gnoll110
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@ US/EU criticism hardens China's policy stance. CN sees policies, incl. fixed yuan, as required for political stability.
3:31 AM Dec 1st
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in reply to gnoll110
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- Name Daniel Feldman
- Location Qingdao, China
- Web http://www.chinam...
- Bio International business developer in China manufacturing. Idea junkie. Amateur painter. Kung fu enthusiast.
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